Flemington Race 8, 4.35pm
Group 1 TAB Australian Cup (2000m)
The lay of the land
It’ll be very similar to last week I think, with the fast lane along the fence. Personally I didn’t think it raced too badly, and any disadvantage shouldn’t be hugely significant.
The speed story
Interesting map here. Getting Glen Boss on board makes me think that Tom Melbourne will go to the front, whilst Ecuador will also roll forward, as will Mourinho from wider. Jameka is also drawn wider and also go forward, though it’s a little hard to know if they’ll take that route or go back.
From there Stratum Star, The United States and Tally will be handy to the speed, Awesome Rock, Boom Time and Humidor will be in midfield, and Real Love and Exospheric will be back.
In the mix
Stratum Star (Weir / Zahra) gets a good run here map-wise. He was honest last week and I think will run to his best.
Awesome Rock (Corstens / Baster) will improve. He ran well first-up and was poor second-up, with the trainer saying he might have reacted badly to some inoculations. He has a good record at the Flemington 2000m and should give a decent showing.
The United States (Hickmott / Melham) is a good horse who was honest at Caulfield before peaking late. He’ll strip fitter here.
Ecuador (Waterhouse & Bott / Hyeronimus) has had four runs over 1400m this prep and now jumps straight to the 2000. However, he did similar last prep and won at his fifth start over the distance, so it’s hardly an untrodden path. The trip will suit and he’ll race handy.
Exospheric (Freedman / Oliver) ran well first up, making good ground, and will probably go back to last here. That won’t be easy.
Humidor (Weir / Lane) is ready to peak here I think. He’s hit line really well in his last two starts, and is now fourth up at 2000m. I think he can run to a new peak here and I really like him.
Jameka (Maher / Bowman) was good first-up then terrific last start when up on the speed, so they may way to be there again. It’s just that wide barrier that’s a bit of a concern.
Real Love (Weir / B Rawiller) is also out wide and can run to her best here, but just lacks the class of others.
Tom Melbourne (Freedman / Boss) was slow away first-up, and was then checked at the start last time, so was back for both of them. He should go forward this time but I’m just not sure if he’s good enough.
Put a line through…
Boom Time (Hayes & Dabernig / R Bayliss) doesn’t have the class to compete here.
Tally (O’Shea / Moreira) is honest and always thereabouts, but lacks the killer punch.
Mourinho (Gelagotis / Darmanin) foundthe front in the same race and then knocked up. He’d need to be at his very best to beat this lot, and at nine years old I don’t think he can be.
I’ve got Humidor on top from Jameka and The United States. Humidor offers slight value at the moment, as does Equador.
Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over 15 years. His Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his early bets, assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.