Pakenham Race 7 4:40pm
Listed Superior Food Services Pakenham Cup (2500m)
The lay of the land
I made the trip and checked out the track yesterday. It looks pretty good, but they struggle to grow grass over the winter so it’s a bit patchy. There’s good cushion though.
The noticeable thing when you’re there is the steepness of the straight. It’s solidly uphill from about the 600m mark to the post. Definitely a course for strong horses.
The speed story
To be honest it’s anybody’s guess. There’s no speed here at all. Pilote D’Essai will lead, but apart from that there’s nothing else that generally looks to go forward. So they’ll fall into line behind the Pilote and we’ll see from there.
In the mix
Pilote D’Essai (Hayes & Dabernig / R Bayliss) won well in the Ballarat Cup, in a great result for Trev’s Bets members as we got him at $18 for a 9 unit collect. He’ll dictate here and will put in a strong run, though is going up 300m in distance and 4kg in weight.
Puccini (Walters / Baster) ran OK at Ballarat to finish fourth, but was well held and also goes up in weight here. I’m thinking he’ll battle a bit. Desert Jeuney (Blackiston / Callow) was also well held, and I don’t think will go too well at the 2500m.
Lord Van Percy (Weir / Allen) on the other hand… he did finish ninth, but rattled home with one of the fastest last 200m of the day and made up a lot of ground. I give him a good chance here.
Little White Cloud (Hickmott / Mallyon) is right in this. He had a great win at Flemington on Stakes Day in his first run in over three years, then went around at the Valley last week. He was caught wide but boxed on really well, and I think he’s better suited at this distance and will improve again.
Swacadelic (Purcell / Williams) has a great record over the staying trips and has been very good of late, running a close second in the Sandown Cup. Williams is on here too, which is always a positive.
Cinnamon Carter (Laing / J Bayliss) is going quite well with a good win at the Valley last start over 3000m. You’ll get decent odds and he’s a sneaky chance.
Give Sly Romance (Laming / Allen) and Transfer Allowance (Roche / Symons) a rough chance. They were both reasonable last start and will get the trip.
Auvray (Weir / Nolen) was well beaten at Ballarat and will struggle again here.
Thunder Teddington (Warren / Newitt) was OK on Stakes Day, but hasn’t raced since (nearly a month) and is up in distance 500m. I doubt he’ll overcome that.
Put a line through…
Old boy Crafty Cruiser (Stanaway / McNeil) has been a good horse, but he’s done and won’t be figuring here.
Arianne (Hyland / Moloney) is poorly graded here and doesn’t really have a chance at this level. Likewise with Platypus Duck (Maher / Coffey).
Little White Cloud is on top for me, and probably the best bet too – I don’t mind the early odds.
Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over 15 years. His Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.