When people first engage the services of a professional tipster or analyst, they’re often after just one thing: winners.
Because in the eyes of many recreational punters, that’s what the professionals do: they back more winners than anybody else.
The reality is very different.
If you’re going to take your punting more seriously, it’s critical that you understand why.
Punting for entertainment
For the recreational punter, it’s about that winning feeling.
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that: they’re generally in it for a bit of fun, largely bet within their means, and aren’t hugely concerned about the return they get.
Sure, everybody would rather be making money than losing it, but that’s not necessarily the primary goal. It’s entertainment and any losses are an entertainment expense.
And there’s nothing more entertaining than backing a winner: seeing your runner loom up in the straight and smash through the line for a win. It’s even better when it’s at long odds and you’ve seen something in the form that everybody else seems to have missed!
That winning feeling, that rush, is the name of the game.
The serious punter is in the game to make money.
They range from the part-time and very keen, to the full-time professional who’s making their living, to large syndicates managing millions in capital on behalf of investors.
Like the recreational punter, they obviously like to see winners. Unlike recreational punters, backing that first horse past the post isn’t the be-all and end-all. That race-to-race winning feeling isn’t of huge concern, because they know the only way to make money is across the long-term.
So which are you?
If you’re on this site you’re probably either a serious punter, or a recreational punter with designs on becoming serious.
If that’s the case, ask yourself this:
Why do I punt?
If it’s for that winning feeling, to see your horse cross the line first, then there’s a number of simple ways to achieve that.
The simplest way of all is to let the market do the work and just back favourites. Let’s look at that example.
Let’s say you bet on NSW racing and took this approach. Since January 2016, if you backed the favourite in every single race in NSW, you would have placed 5,018 bets and saluted 1,792 times! That’s a strike-rate of 36%.
Backing at Best Tote and using proportionate staking with a $100 unit, you’d have lost about $3,000. For that much fun, it’s probably not a bad price.
(And of course, you can just adjust those figures based on how much you bet. $10 betting units would have resulted in a $300 loss, for example).
To compare that to the serious punter, we’ll use the example of our NSW professional Nathan Snow. In the same time period, Snowy’s NSW Ratings package has placed 2,997 bets. You can see every one of them here.
Just 433 of those have been winners. That’s a strike-rate of 14%.
Are you just in it for the winning feeling? It’s pretty clear which method you should follow: back the favourites, get your 1,792 winning feelings, and pay $3,000 for the privilege.
Again, there’s nothing wrong with that – you’ll probably have a fair bit of fun!
On the other hand, Snowy – the serious punter – only had 14% of his bets as winners. Bear in mind his race strike-rate was much better than that as he normally backs more than one runner per race.
He (and his members) made over $15,000 profit in the process, betting at just $100 per unit.
Rethinking which approach you’d prefer?
If so, you need to be prepared to forego the winning feeling and concentrate on the long-term.
So how does he do it?
To sum it up in one word: value.
Stay tuned, and we’ll soon show you exactly how it works.