Moonee Valley Race 7 tonight, 9.30pm
Group 2 Browns Sawdust & Shavings Australia Stakes (1200m)
$200,000

The lay of the land

The track played well last week and I wouldn’t expect much change here.  The rail is in the same position and it’ll play evenly I think.

The speed story

Sirbible will lead with Chetwood coming forward from wide, while Turn Me Loose and Peacock handy up the inside.  Black Heart Bart is also inside, whilst Malaguerra will be caught out wide.  Palentino should go back.

In the mix

Black Heart Bart (Weir / Rawiller) is just a gun and has a lot in his favour here.  Rawiller rides him well and the horse has always looked good fresh.  He’ll sit just off the pace here and get a nice run.  He’s the one to beat.

Malaguerra (Gelagotis / Melham) is a bloody good horse who just keeps improving.  Last prep he ran well in his first start at Caulfield, and then absolutely flew down the straight at Flemington for a great win on Stakes Day.  He got rolled in Perth but has now had a good freshen up, and will be right in this.

Palentino (Weir / Lane) is an honest, classy horse but this doesn’t look ideal.  He seems to prefer the wider spaces at Flemington, and also has never been great first up: he takes a run or two.  Will also be back and inside here.

Chetwood (O’Shea / Doyle) is an improving type who is unbeaten first-up and has had two solid trials into this.  Won well over 1400m in the spring and has prospects here.

It Is Written (Griffiths / Allen) was poor last week but has the quick backup here and Allen is good at the Valley.

I think Turn Me Loose (Baker & Forsman / McEvoy) needs this run.  He didn’t come up last prep and was sent for another spell, and then trialled just fairly in New Zealand a couple of weeks back.  His best form is longer than this and it looks a bit beyond him.

Peacock (O’Shea / Williams) had a good win on Caulfield Cup Day, beating some good horses, but had an absolutely ideal run which probably flattered him.  I don’t think he has the class for this.

Mourinho (Gelagotis / Newitt) has been class, but is nine years old now and this is off an 11 month spell.  I can’t see it.

Put a line through…

Sirbible (Bell / Gauci) is quick and will be out front, but will get run down.  Doesn’t have the class of the others here.

Trev’s Tip

A good race here with plenty of live chances, which makes it hard to pick!  I’ve got Black Heart Bart on top and can’t go past him, with Malaguerra and Chetwood next in line.

Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over 15 years. His Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his early bets, assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.