Ballarat Race 8 4:00pm
Listed Sportsbet.com.au Ballarat Cup (2200m)
$300,000

The lay of the land

Yet to give the track a full inspection, but I expect it’ll play well.  It usually does.  We’ll know more later on today.

The speed story

Go Dreaming and Puccini jump side-by-side and should go forward straight away, whilst Cool Chap will shoot up the inside to join them.

Turnitaround, Lidari and Cool Chap will be coming from wider and will slot in behind them, with Taiyoo and Nizomi leading the midfield.

In the mix

For mine, Nozomi (Freedman / Baster) is the horse to beat.  He was really good on the last day at Flemington, in a high-rating race where they actually went quicker then the Mackinnon.  He gets a significant drop in weight here too.  Scherzoso (McEvoy / Allen) comes out of the same race and is a bloody honest horse, so has a chance too.

The win of Turnitaround (Williams / Shinn) in the Eclipse Stakes last week was full of merit and he’s racing really well.  The form out of this looks solid, with Lidari (Weir / Allen) putting in a class run for third and looking ready to peak here tomorrow.  Auvray (Weir / Coffey) was less impressive there however, and may not deal as well with the quick backup.

Cool Chap (Freedman / Stackhouse) should be alright with the backup and wasn’t suited on the inside there.  He’ll like the step-up in trip too.

The Eclipse was the second run for Lord Van Percy (Weir / Yendall) after a two year break, and I think he’ll improve here.  You can forgive the run of Desert Jeuney (Blackiston / Symons), which missed the start badly, but he’s a long way out in the barriers here which won’t suit.

Rising Romance (Hayes & Dabernig / Zahra) just can’t win!  She hasn’t saluted in nearly three years, and that was only by a nose too.  Having said that, she had no luck in the Matriarch and even less before that in the Myer Classic at Flemington.  Give her a very rough chance.

Lady Le Fay (Waller / Newitt) drew too close in for the Matriarch, and the wider barrier here will suit.  Look for improvement.

Taiyoo (Weir / Rawiller) was battling but has returned to form in the last two, including a good win in the Kyneton Cup.  He’s ready for the trip and has a rough chance.

Puccini (Walters / Robertson) has had a couple of runs in country cups for the new trainer and has been decent, and should improve further here.

Pilote D’Essai (Hayes & Dabernig / Bayliss ) ran on Oaks Day and got too far back in a pace-dominated race, and was unlucky before that at Caulfield.  the wide barrier here is a concern however, and it’s his first try at this trip.  He has undoubted class though.

Sonntag (Dwyer / Dee ) has been battling.  He did run third here last year however, which is one good sign.

Put a line through…

Go Dreaming (Kluske / Gauci) is outclassed and won’t be winning this.

Manageress (Alderson / Payne) looks to be struggling over its last few runs and was very plain in the Matriarch, finishing well back.

Magnapal (O’Sullivan / Currie) has had a long preparation and hasn’t looked close to it over the past four runs.

I’m happy to risk Observational (Sadler / Nolen), who jumping straight from 1600m to the 2200m with limited preperation.

Trev’s Tip

Nozomi for me, from Pilote D’Essai, Cool Chap and Lidari.

Value

Nozomi and Pilote D’Essai actually look a good price at the moment and are worth a bet.

Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter who won on Derby Day and Cup Day. His Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.

1 COMMENT

  1. Dear Trevor,
    good analysis , and well pointed out that the race Nozomi comes out of was run in quicker time than the Mackinnon on the same day.
    However it is incorrect that Scherzoso comes out of the same race. He was placed on oaks day in the 1800 race that The Chairman won.
    regards
    Russell