Footy is finally here!
The AFL is back tonight with the traditional season opener, Carlton versus Richmond at the MCG. Our new AFL analysts, Brett’s Betting Syndicate, will be betting this game.
But if you’re one of the many people who seems to be a bit underwhelmed about this clash opening the season every year, you needn’t worry…
Tomorrow night looks like a cracker anyway, with reigning grand finalist Collingwood taking on perennial contender Geelong.
New year, new faces. Not quite in the case of Collingwood, as the biggest addition is a very familiar one: Dayne Beams returns to the club after a four-year stint in Brisbane.
He’s a big acquisition who will significantly bolster the Pies’ midfield.
Jordan Roughead, who looks like a bit of a bargain addition from the Dogs, is also expected to play his first game for the club. He’s likely to be deployed in defence.
And while not a new face, livewire forward Jamie Elliott will feel like a new recruit after not playing since 2016.
No major outs for the Pies, with fringe selection Alex Fasolo the most notable departure from the club.
For the Cats, they’ve made a couple of additions to their forward line in Luke Dahlhaus and Garry Rohan, who should help with the forward pressure that proved an issue for them last year.
Brett’s Betting Syndicate
Below is Brett’s “game script” for how he thinks things will play out. This is used as a guide, first for betting main markets, but then also for the increasingly popular in-game trading markets.
If you don’t really understand it… don’t worry! It’s complex, but it’ll just give you an idea of some of the data that is rolled out by the models used by a large betting syndicate.
In short? For the main game line, the syndicate’s market is very close to the bookies, favouring Collingwood -9. Beyond that it gets a little more complex, so we’ll let Brett take over!
“All these signals are telling us this game is cherry ripe for a big momentum driven victory. Once a team takes control of the game, the probability of stopping them is unlikely. We can take advantage of this pre-game.
“The punter should be looking at quarter-by-quarter leader for both teams, both teams to win 40+ or 60+, and big second half victories for each.
“The lesson learnt here is that even though we might be in complete agreement with market as to the most likely overall outcome, IF there is a different outcome, it’s more likely to play out in the way portrayed than the books and in-play competitors may think.
“The Pies/Cats game first the bill perfectly. The tails to this game’s margin is loaded with ‘unlikely’ outcomes, more so than the values the books are offering at the tails.
“When you then throw in never-before-seen rule changes designed to make the game more volatile, I hope you can appreciate why I have been saying this round is the perfect storm, ‘a Black Swan’ opportunity to find something at $100 that should be $10.
“Embrace volatility and expect the unexpected. In all ways.”
If you want to rely on a little more than luck though, we do have Brett’s AFL Tips option available.
Years of beating the bookies is set to continue in season 2019 for Brett and his team of data scientists.