AFL tips McGuane, afl season preview
  • Collingwood vs Richmond: Can the Pies bounce back?
  • Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Will the Lions close in on top spot?
  • St Kilda vs Melbourne: Are Ratten’s Saints on the march?

It’s getting toward the business end of the AFL season, but perhaps more than past seasons, there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty around several teams.

This is evident in Round 19, with the betting market struggling to separate the opponents in a number of matches.

We’ve put together a Line Ladder each week to illustrate how the teams are performing against the market.

To get another perspective on this week’s games, we spoke to former Collingwood champion and Herald-Sun footy analyst Mick McGuane to get his thoughts on the Round 19 head-scratchers.

Collingwood (4th) vs Richmond (5th)

H2H: Collingwood $2.45, Richmond $1.53

Line: Collingwood (+9.5) $1.90, Richmond (-9.5) $1.90

It’s a close game ladder-wise… but Mick has little doubt which side he’d prefer to be on.

“I think you’ve got one team in outstanding form over the past month, in Richmond, and one team that’s inconsistent and unrecognisable with their brand. So in terms of a selection, I’d tend to go with what you know you’re gonna get versus being unsure about what you’ll get. SO that’s Richmond.

“The Tigers are conceding only 64 points since the bye and they’re scoring 112, so they’re working both sides extremely well.

“As for Collingwood, I can’t put my finger on it. The personnel is the same. They’re inconsistent with their effort and their pressure isn’t where it should be. There was 45 minutes of really good footy against West Coast but aside from that, they’ve been unrecognisable.

“Richmond have to be the selection there for mine.”

Hawthorn (10th) vs Brisbane (2nd)

H2H: Hawthorn $1.87, Richmond $1.93

Line: Hawthorn (-1.5) $1.90, Brisbane (+1.5) $1.90

Brisbane have the wood on the Hawks recently and they occupy opposite ends of the ladder, but the betting market can’t split these two.

Should Hawthorn be this close to Brisbane this week? Mick says yes.

“Brisbane have been able to win this match-up recently due to their ball movement and speed. But right now with Hawthorn’s defence – the way they’re squeezing the ground and the way their layers of defence are working together and are all in sync… teams just cannot penetrate against them at the moment and it’s keeping strong opponents very quiet.

“Hawthorn aren’t scoring like they have been in previous years – Mitch Lewis looks promising but they’re probably still too reliant on Gunston and Bruest – so they seem to have gone the team defensive route to bring the opponents back to them. And it’s working of late.

“If Hawthorn bring that this week then Brisbane are going to be challenged more than they have been the last few times the sides have met.”

St Kilda (14th) vs Melbourne (17th)

H2H: St Kilda $2.05, Melbourne $1.77

Line: St Kilda (+3.5) $1.90, Melbourne (-3.5) $1.90

Sometimes as a punter you need to know when to pull your punches. This looks like one of those games.

“Absolute toss of the coin! They’ve both been really disappointing this year, and both clubs have probably had some reasons as to why in terms of injuries and preparation… but you just don’t know what you’re going to get from either of these teams.

“From a betting standpoint, do you really invest in teams where you don’t know what you’re going to get? When that uncertainty is there it makes it very hard to do it.”

All odds courtesy of Ladbrokes

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