AFL

The 2018 AFL season kicked off last night with Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues at the MCG.

We’ve seen a few promotions return from previous seasons this year. What’s interesting is that with last season’s stats added to the mix, the value has improved on several promotions. That’s happened on promotions that depend on a team leading and then losing, which backs up the trend in the modern game with teams kicking several goals in a row, rather than goals being kicked back-and-forth.

Daniel and Stephen are back for another year with their AFL Footy Tips 2018 package. They are top notch and will make you some extra cash on the AFL and also on the High Lows. Pro tips are useful when my analysis tells you that you can pick either side. Brett and his syndicate will be providing AFL props again as well, which from time to time will provide useful information.

As usual, the bookies are falling head over heels to get your footy tips dollars, so read on to find out how you can take advantage (and what to avoid) on the AFL in 2018!

Key:
 
A+ selection – cracking value
A selection – excellent value (all time record – 5037 bets @ 22.2% P.O.T.)
B selection – solid value, worth a bet (all-time record – 3535 bets @ 10.8% P.O.T.)
C selection – some value, not worth a bet
D selection – marginal value, not worth a bet
E selection – long-term losing proposition
F selection – absolute shocker

Bet365

Head to Head – Early Payout Lead By 24 Points

Early Payout Lead By 24 Points But Lose. Round 1-6. No maximum stated. No state restrictions listed.
 
This is one of the promotions that was not worth a bet in previous seasons that now has some nice value attached to it. In general, the rougher the team, the better the bet.
 
The value gradually increases as the team price increases and then drops off again at the roughies end. Favourites are C-D selections. Teams from $1.90-$2.10 are B selections. Teams $2.10 onward are A selections. Teams around the $2.60-$2.80 are the peak value and receive most early payouts (11% of matches). Teams from $2.80 onward are B selections.

Verdict: A-D selection

Betting Club

Head to Head – Over The Mark

Bonus Bet Score 14 Goals But Lose. Max $50. Rounds 1-4. Not available to residents of SA.
 
In general, roughies are the better bet on this promotion. However, it’s the total expected match points and total expected roughie goals that are the two most important factors (the higher the better). Those numbers will vary from match to match. We will not have many bets on this promotion as most roughies will be C selections but there will be occasional matches where the stars align and the roughie makes a B selection.

Verdict: B-D selection

Betting Club

Multi – Free Kick

Bonus Bet 3 out of 4. Max $50. Rounds 1-4. Not available to residents of SA.

As always with multi promotions, it varies from week-to-week whether the round’s multi is worth a bet or not. Based on previous seasons, this multi will be a B selection in around half the rounds. The rest of the time it will be a C selection, and on rare occasions, a D selection. Members will be provided information each week on which multis are worth a bet.
 
Round 1 multi is a C selection.

Verdict: B-D selection

Bluebet

Head to Head – Money Back Lose By 18

Money Back Lose By 18 Points or Less. Max $50. Round 1. Not available to residents of NSW and SA.
 
This is the same promotion Bluebet offered last year on the AFL.
 
This value on this promotion follows a similar but flatter curve to the Bet365 promotion. Teams from $1.30-$1.80 are B selections. Teams from $1.80-$3.50 are A selections. The peak value is around the $2.50 to $2.80 range. Teams from $3.50 onwards are B selections.
 
You don’t want to play every match with Bluebet (to avoid a promo restriction). Around 4 matches per round is the right amount.
 
Focus on teams around the peak range to maximise the value and your longevity on Bluebet. You can also use the flexibility on this promotion to balance your bets on a match. For example, if you are playing Team A on 3 bets on the match (on other bookies), you can use Bluebet to play Team B.
 
This promotion is available on all Round 1 matches at this stage but will most likely be available in subsequent rounds. 
 
Verdict: A-C selection

Crownbet

Head to Head – First To 50

Bonus Bet First To 50 Points But Lose. Max $50. Round 1. Not available to residents of NSW and SA.
 
I don’t have the exact stats I would like on this promotion unfortunately but using some “first principles”, this promotion falls just short of a bet. An analysis of quarter-by-quarter leaders (stats I do have) shows this promotion falls a long way short.
 
The value is similar across all teams, with even matches and rougher teams providing a slightly better edge.
 
Verdict: C-D selection

Crownbet

Multi – Bonus Bet 3 out of 4

Bonus Bet 3 out of 4. Max $50. Min $1.10 Per Leg. Not available to residents of NSW and SA.
 
This is the same promotion as Betting Club (see there).
 
Crownbet (like several bookies) will often have the next round’s matches underneath the current round, so be careful not to play the next round’s matches. Multi promotions almost always just apply to the current round.
 
Verdict: B-D selection

Ladbrokes

Head to Head – Most Scoring Shots Paid Out

Paid As Winner Most Scoring Shots But Lose. No maximum. No state restrictions.
 
In general, the longer the price, the better the value on this promotion. Teams from $2.20-$2.50 are B selections. Teams $2.50 or longer are A selections. There is no peak on this promotion. The value is not as great on this promotion at the Early Payout promotions but it still makes an A selection all the same. 
 
Inaccurate teams will provide better value than accurate teams. St Kilda Saints (47.5%) and Western Bulldogs (46.7%) stood out as the worst two sides for accuracy last season. Here is the complete list:
 
AFL
I wouldn’t go too hard on this promotion (to maintain your promo access). We will play $50 per bet on limited matches and focus on matches with inaccurate teams or where we do not already have a lot (or anything) invested on the match.
 
Verdict: A-C selection.

Neds

Head to Head – Double Profit

Double Winnings on Adelaide Crows. Max $20. Ess vs Ade. Not available to residents of SA.
 
This is a nice offer and almost an A+ selection. You have to back Adelaide. Make sure to place your bet on the promotional market, which can be accessed via the promotions page, otherwise you are not eligible for the promotion.
 
Verdict: A selection.

Palmerbet

Head to Head – AFL Fill-Up

Bonus Bet Lead At 3/4 Time But Lose. Max $100. Thu and Fri Matches. Not available to residents of SA and WA.
 
Palmerbet need to wake up to themselves with their promotions. They’re consistently the worst promotions around and this one is no different. It’s a D selection.
 
Verdict: D selection

Pointsbet

Head to Head – Early Payout Lead By 20 Points

Early Payout Lead By 20 Points But Lose. Max $500. Not available to residents of NSW, SA and WA.
 
This is a better version of the Bet365 promotion with similar characteristics and some minor differences in the value ranges. Favourites $1.80 or less are C-D selections. Teams from $1.80-$2.10 are B selections. Teams $2.10 onwards are A selections. Teams around the $2.50-$2.80 are the peak value and receive most early payouts (13% of matches). Teams from $2.80 onwards are A selections. The key difference here is that roughies past $2.80 remain A selections.
 
This promotion is available on all matches this season. I wouldn’t play every match on Pointsbet (to maintain your promo access), so I would stick with teams around the $2.50-$2.80 peak and leave the rest. In terms of outlay, back an amount consistent with your previous bets.
 
Verdict: A-D selection

Sportsbet

Head to Head – 24 Up You Win

Early Payout Lead By 24 Points But Lose. Round 1. Max $500. Not available to residents of SA or WA.
 
This is the same promotion as Bet365. See there.
 
Verdict: A-D selection

Sportsbet

Same Game Multi

Bonus Bet 2 out of 3. Min Final Price $2. Max $50/$55 (NSW). Not available to residents of SA or WA.
 
This is a nice promotion and members are provided with a specific method to play the promotion. 
 
Bets need to be placed in the “Same Game Multi” tab. You can access the Same Game Multi tab via the promotions page on the website (click on the match -> click on “Same Game Multi” tab) or the app.
 
This promotion is quite flexible so we’ll use it to balance our bets on selected matches.
 
Verdict: A selection

TAB

Head to Head – Bonus Bet Lead By 18+ But Lose

Bonus Bet Lead By 18+ Points But Lose. Max $50. Rounds 1-4. Not available to residents of SA and WA.
 
This does not happen often enough to make it worth a bet and the Bonus Bet instead of Money Back makes it a worse offer again.
 
Verdict: C-D selection.

Tabtouch

Multi – AFL/NRL Multi Insurance

Money Back 4 out of 5. Max $50. Min Final Price $2. Not available to residents of NSW, VIC and SA.
 
The wording is a little confusing here but I believe this multi can be played on a combined AFL/NRL multi should we wish. That said, the NRL matches this week are a lot more even than the AFL, so we we’ll stick with the AFL. Top 5 Favourites is an A selection.
 
Verdict: A selection.

Ubet

Head to Head – Money Back Lead By 15+ But Lose

Money Back Lead By 15+ Points But Lose. Max $50. Rounds 1-4. Not available to residents of NSW.
 
This is another promotion we’ve seen in previous seasons and another example where the value has improved. Teams up to $2.50 are C-D selections. Teams around the $2.50-$2.80 range are B selections. Teams greater than $2.80 are C selections.
 
This promotion is available on Rounds 1-4.
 
Verdict: B-D selection

Unibet

Head to Head – Footy Lock

Money Back If Swans Lose. West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans (Sun 25 Mar). Max/Min Bet $30. Not available to residents of SA and WA.
 
This is a free bet on the Swans to win their match vs West Coast Eagles, which makes it an A+ selection. You need to “opt in” to this promotion (there is a 1000 customer limit) and you need to place a $30 bet (no more, no less).
 
There is also a WA restriction on this promotion, which we have not seen before.
 
Verdict: A+ selection

William Hill

Head to Head – Chase The Goal

$1 Rewards Points Per Goal Your Team Kicks If Wins. Min Bet $20. Richmond vs Carlton. Not available to residents of NSW, SA and WA.
 
This promotion was available on last night’s match and may appear again. The shorter the favourite, the better the bet on this promotion. The value also depends (to a lesser extent) on the total points to be scored in the match. You must bet a minimum $20 on this promotion. You lose value betting more. Richmond was expected to kick 14-15 goals in last night’s match, which at their starting price ($1.18), made them an A+ selection.
 
All William Hill promotions need to be “selected” from the promotions pages before you are eligible for the promotion.
 
Verdict: A+ selection

Summary

Bet365 – Head to Head – Early Payout Lead By 24 Points – A-D selection
Betting Club – Head to Head – Over The Mark – B-D selection
Betting Club – Multi – Free Kick – B-D selection
Bluebet – Head to Head – Money Back Lose By 18 – A-C selection
Crownbet – Head to Head – First To 50 – C-D selection
Crownbet – Multi – Bonus Bet 3 out of 4 – B-D selection
Ladbrokes – Head to Head – Most Scoring Shots Paid Out – A-C selection
Neds – Head to Head – Double Profit – A selection
Palmerbet – Head to Head – AFL Fill-Up – D selection
Pointsbet – Head to Head – Early Payout Lead By 20 Points
Sportsbet – Head to Head – 24 Up You Win – A-D selection
Sportsbet – Same Game Multi – A selection
TAB – Head to Head – Bonus Bet Lead By 18+ But Lose
Tabtouch – Multi – AFL/NRL Multi Insurance – A selection
Ubet – Head to Head – Money Back Lead By 15+ But Lose – B-D selection
Unibet – Head to Head – Footy Lock – A+ selection
William Hill – Head to Head – Chase The Goal – A+ selection
As always, whether you’re a member or non-member, drop me a line and I’m happy to help out with any questions you may have.
 
Good luck on the AFL in 2018!
 
Rod

The High Low is on track for another massive winning month, with over $3,300 in profits in March with a week still to come.

That marks an incredible 14th straight winning month for the Rod’s juggernaut membership!

You simply can’t beat the value or the profits that come from the High Low.. there’s nothing else like it!