The ‘new coach bounce’ is a well-worn theory in the AFL.
Sack the coach, get a win. Simple!
Unfortunately, purely in terms of wins and losses, it’s a myth. Studies of the data have that.
But what about from a punting point of view?
Is backing the new coach a way to make money?
We had a look at all mid-season coach changes over this decade to decide.
There’s been eleven of them, not yet counting Brenton Bolton’s departure from Carlton. On a head-to-head basis, it sits at four wins and seven losses.
Head-to-head, level stakes
Betting one unit at level stakes, you’d have outlaid 11 units and got returns on Adelaide in 2011 (1.64 units), Port in 2011 (1.19 units), Brisbane in 2013 (1.06 units) and North in 2019 (3.2 units).
7.09 units in for an overall loss of 3.91 units, at -55.1% PoT.
Head-to-head, proportionate stakes
Staking a bit smarter, we’ll take a look at betting each team to collect five units.
Overall? Profit! 20.4 units staked in total, for a profit of 0.7 units at 3.4% PoT.
It’s a small profit, but we’re ahead!
Although only four of the eleven teams we’ve looked at won, a very healthy seven of the eleven covered the line. At a strike-rate of 64%, that’s a very big edge!
Betting a unit each at $1.90 lines, you’d have staked 11 units and collected 13.3 units, for a profit of 2.3 units at an awesome 21% PoT!
We’ve cracked it… we’re rich!
Back to reality though… of course, the biggest problem with coach sackings is the lack of data – we’ve gone back ten seasons and there are only eleven events to look at…. far from enough to have faith in the numbers.
But if you’re a thrillseeker… it’s got to be Carlton at the line this week!
If you want to rely on a little more than luck on the punt this season, Brett’s AFL Tips is the way to go.
Years of beating the bookies continues in season 2019 for Brett and his team of data scientists.
Get their premium AFL betting tips now.