A brand new racing membership!
Alpha Racing is here.
The analyst behind it, Alfie, joined us on the Betting 360 Podcast to talk us through his own background and the new membership.
The Betting 360 Podcast is brought to you by TopSport.
Our chat with Alfie covers…
- Alfie’s background in punting. Where did he start?
- The attraction of the form puzzle, the maths and the data
- The university of horse racing
- Moving to a professional database
- Alfie’s natural long-term viewpoint
- Starting out… the importance of recording all of your bets
- The form process and the importance of the database in refining selections
- When does Alfie bet – which days of the week and which tracks?
- Managing time – how do you fit it all in?
- How does Alpha Racing work? What will members receive and when?
Tell us about you background on the punt, Alfie?
I’ve been around punting since I was legally allowed to, so that’s 25 or 26 years now. I started out at 18 with a form guide or Best Bets, whatever I could get my hands on, and I’d head to the TAB or to the track and really enjoyed unpacking the races with whatever data I had on hand at that point in time – which back then, was just a form guide. It remained as a hobby which ebbed and flowed throughout the years, I really enjoyed the maths side of it and looking at all the data I could get.
As a younger bloke I enjoyed the social side of it all too, but I never went into a raceday frivolously – I always went in with a plan and would do the form properly beforehand. So although it was recreational and a hobby, I wouldn’t say I was ever a mug punter in any way, shape or form.
I got a bit older and wiser and really threw myself into it properly about five or six years ago. I’d been through university and got a couple of degrees, so I went ahead and put myself through the university of horse racing. I got every bit of knowledge I could – books, podcasts, you name it – just to immerse myself in racing. I read it all from Don Scott and Rem Plante onwards. I had a good look at Vince Accardi’s work too, and read all of Andy Beyer’s stuff. I just really immersed myself in it.
I then started making my own ratings, which were pretty raw, but I was still educating myself a hell of a lot and I got much better at it. My bankroll started to grow and once that happened and I could sustain it, I went to a professional database. That’s when things really took off… I had consistent ratings that were verified plus all the trimmings that come with a good database. That was the launching pad to move things to the next level and where I am today.
So for you, the attraction in racing was always the form puzzle?
Yep, it was the form puzzle. I know when you’re younger and you walk into a racetrack, usually you think you’re gonna walk away with thousands of dollars. But for some reason I never had that mentality, personally. I always had the mentality of taking a slow approach – I’m probably a bit weird in that sense, because I was like that even as an 18-year-old. I think I’ve just got that mindset, I try to do it in a very professional manner and that it’s always a case of just moving forward over the long term.
Was there a point when something clicked and you thought “I can do this profitably“?
You talk to any serious punter and one of the first pieces of advice they always give is to record all your bets. And I think that was a crucial point for me. When you start actually tracking every bet you made, why you made it, your outlay and return… and you can actually see, I could be profitable at this. You’ll then start taking a more mathematical or scientific approach to it.
Where and how do you do the form and bet?
When I started out I was sticking to Melbourne and a little bit of Sydney racing and using my own ratings. But as my bankroll grew, that’s when I thought that there’s professional databases out there with ratings right across Australia. Now I don’t just bet in one jurisdiction, I’m happy to bet all around Australia.
It starts out with a group of selected horses each day that meet some qualifying data filters that I’ve got in the database. They’re my starting point and that could be all around Australia. Once those qualifiers come out, I sit down and do the form on them starting with the speed map.
I find it the best way to do it… it means I don’t have to sit down and look at a whole meeting or card of racing. I might look at one or two races and then a race or two elsewhere, whatever qualifiers come out. And I have to do some research and development each week to look at different theories and edges, and whether it should be included in the database as a qualifying filter.
Are you looking to bet every day?
I bet every day except Monday. But the metro races have the most volume. Each week I’m looking at around 20 bets and I’d say 12 or 13 of them are on metro racing. That’s just because the ratings are more consistent.
How do you manage everything time-wise?
I manage by having a very understanding partner! I’m not the best sleeper, which helps. It means very early mornings and then just getting any hour I can at it. But not a lot of sleep – I’m lucky I can get by without it. I’m up about 4am every day – I like it, it’s a good quiet time to get into the work.
How will Alpha Racing look for members?
I put the bets out each morning with the units staked for that day. If we have night racing and I’m betting, I’ll send something in the morning to advise what time the bets will be out in the afternoon. On Saturdays things are usually a bit busier, so I tend to send out the morning update, and then another update about an hour later with any further bets I’m having.
A lot of my betting is at Best of the Best or Top Fluc. Maybe 20% of the time I take an early fixed price.
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Brand new racing membership!
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