Episode 11 of the Ultimate Form Guide: Is it better to bet early or late? We ask the pros this question as well as digging into their staking plans. How much do they bet?
We’ve gathered a group of the sharpest racing and betting minds in Australia – plus a couple from across the world – to get their thoughts on many different aspects of form analysis and betting. Each episode of The Ultimate Form Guide is focused on an individual form, betting or racing topic. That way, you can hear from all the experts talk about each topic, together.
“A couple of years ago I used to do a lot more early betting than I do now. These days, early on there is a lot more percentage in the main chances than there used to be. We just don’t get as many gold nugget opportunities where a horse is $4 that should be $2.80. So now, more often than not the best time to bet is closer to race time.”
Cameron O’Brien
“Staking is one of, if not the, most important factors in finding success as a punter. There’s nothing more certain to ruin your chances of success than poor staking.”
Daniel O’Sullivan
“Whether to bet early or late is a great conundrum. For me, it depends on how much of an overlay it is and whether I think the market will find that horse.“
Trevor Lawson
“Around 3% of my bank is the maximum I’ll have on any one bet. You need to tailor your approach on the strike rate of your bets but also psychologically in terms of your general appetite for risk.”
Mark Rhoden
“The majority of the time I’ll bet early and the upside is that you often get good prices. The downside of course is you can’t get on for much so I’d say 95% of my bets are for the maximum amount I can back a horse to win.”
James Jordan
“The more you can adjust your unit size, the better. Doing that every day is ideal as you get compounding growth on the way up, or some protection on the way down and my first instinct is always to protect the bank.”
The Professor
“I back myself in by betting according to my rated price, not the market price. So if I’ve rated a horse $4 I’ll have the same amount whether it’s $6 or $30.”
Terry Leighton
“We feel bankroll structure is the biggest thing that separates pro punters from everyday punters.”
Tristan Merlehan
“I have found the most powerful tool is through the prism of sectional times and how to profile a horse. You’ll not get a better insight into the potential of a racehorse and their class capabilities.”
Vince Accardi
“Most of my bets are in the $4 to $11 range and I back them each-way as I’d much prefer to get some of my stake back when the horse places rather than ride out long losing runs.”
Wayne Finter
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The Ultimate Form Guide: The Episodes
Episode 1 Introduction
Episode 2 Speed & sectionals
Episode 3 Class
Episode 4 Weight
Episode 5 Replays & track bias
Episode 6 Jockeys
Episode 7 Trainers
Episode 8 Barrier trials
Episode 9 Wet tracks
Episode 10 Ratings & rated prices
Episode 11 Staking & when to bet
Episode 12 Bookies & bet types
Episode 13 The Exchange
Episode 14 Betting psychology
Episode 15 Betting success