Is it better to bet early or late? What’s the best staking plan? The Ultimate Form Guide Podcast

Episode 11 of the Ultimate Form Guide: Is it better to bet early or late? We ask the pros this question as well as digging into their staking plans. How much do they bet?

We’ve gathered a group of the sharpest racing and betting minds in Australia – plus a couple from across the world – to get their thoughts on many different aspects of form analysis and betting. Each episode of The Ultimate Form Guide is focused on an individual form, betting or racing topic. That way, you can hear from all the experts talk about each topic, together.

“A couple of years ago I used to do a lot more early betting than I do now. These days, early on there is a lot more percentage in the main chances than there used to be. We just don’t get as many gold nugget opportunities where a horse is $4 that should be $2.80. So now, more often than not the best time to bet is closer to race time.”
Cameron O’Brien

“Staking is one of, if not the, most important factors in finding success as a punter. There’s nothing more certain to ruin your chances of success than poor staking.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“Whether to bet early or late is a great conundrum. For me, it depends on how much of an overlay it is and whether I think the market will find that horse.“
Trevor Lawson

“Around 3% of my bank is the maximum I’ll have on any one bet. You need to tailor your approach on the strike rate of your bets but also psychologically in terms of your general appetite for risk.”
Mark Rhoden

“The majority of the time I’ll bet early and the upside is that you often get good prices. The downside of course is you can’t get on for much so I’d say 95% of my bets are for the maximum amount I can back a horse to win.”
James Jordan

“The more you can adjust your unit size, the better. Doing that every day is ideal as you get compounding growth on the way up, or some protection on the way down and my first instinct is always to protect the bank.”
The Professor

“I back myself in by betting according to my rated price, not the market price. So if I’ve rated a horse $4 I’ll have the same amount whether it’s $6 or $30.”
Terry Leighton

“We feel bankroll structure is the biggest thing that separates pro punters from everyday punters.”
Tristan Merlehan

“I have found the most powerful tool is through the prism of sectional times and how to profile a horse. You’ll not get a better insight into the potential of a racehorse and their class capabilities.”
Vince Accardi

“Most of my bets are in the $4 to $11 range and I back them each-way as I’d much prefer to get some of my stake back when the horse places rather than ride out long losing runs.”
Wayne Finter

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The Ultimate Form Guide: The Episodes

Episode 1 Introduction
Episode 2 Speed & sectionals
Episode 3 Class
Episode 4 Weight
Episode 5 Replays & track bias
Episode 6 Jockeys
Episode 7 Trainers
Episode 8 Barrier trials
Episode 9 Wet tracks
Episode 10 Ratings & rated prices
Episode 11 Staking & when to bet
Episode 12 Bookies & bet types
Episode 13 The Exchange
Episode 14 Betting psychology
Episode 15 Betting success

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The Ultimate Form Guide: The Experts

Trevor Lawson is a professional punter who’s made his living betting on Victorian racing for almost twenty years. Trevor runs the Melbourne Ratings and Trev’s Bets services at Champion Bets. Twitter @lunchandpunt

Mark Rhoden is a bookmaker turned professional punter. Starting with Mark Read’s IASBet in Darwin, Mark spent many years in the industry which culminated in his role as head trader of NSW racing at Sportsbet. Since leaving Sportsbet some five years ago, Mark has “gone it alone” as a professional punter. Twitter @cotchinsoda

The Professor is a long-time student of the form, he’s is a very successful punter with a long winning track record. He focuses exclusively on racing in South East Queensland, and runs the Queensland Winners service for Champion Bets. Twitter @TheProfessorCB

Cameron O’Brien was bred to be a champion. The son of a professional punter, he’s been producing weight ratings since the age of 15: first learning the Don Scott method and then continually refining his own approach to doing the form over time. Cameron trained as a form analyst under legendary bookmaker Mark Read, and has now been a professional punter for more than 10 years. He runs the Key Bets and Key Race Insights services for Champion Bets. Twitter @Gamblor_PCO

James Jordan started his racing journey on the phones for a corporate bookmaker before taking on various roles in the bookmaking industry. He later moved into TV coverage as a form analyst for Channel 7’s racing coverage, and is now the South Australian form analyst for racing.com. Twitter @James_Jordan

Daniel O’Sullivan is a form analyst who runs The Racing Bureau, which supplies data, software and consulting services to punters as well as a range of racing industry participants. Twitter @TRBHorseRacing

Terry Leighton is a professional punter focused purely on Western Australian racing. He’s been betting full-time for five years now, and is also a contributor to the Betfair Hub. Twitter @PerthRacingGuru

Vince Accardi has been called ‘The Godfather of Sectional Times’. He’s been focused on the science of sectional timing – recording, analysing and digesting times – for over thirty years. He founded and runs Daily Sectionals.

Robbie Waterhouse is a name that needs no introduction to those in racing. The son of leviathan rails bookmaker Bill Waterhouse, Robbie has himself spent a lifetime as an on-course bookmaker, and has recently taken his business online. Twitter @RobWaterhouse1

Tristan Merlehan is another bookmaking “lifer”. The son of on-course bookmaker Lloyd Merlehan, Tristan jumped on the bag himself as soon as he was able. Their bookmaking business has evolved into TopSport, the leading Australian-owned and operated corporate bookmaker. Twitter @TopSport_com_au

Barry Meadow is a US-based professional punter who spent nearly 30 years betting for a living on US racing, as well as writing books on the science of form analysis and betting.

Wayne Finter is a UK-based form analyst who has spent years betting and doing form on UK and Irish horse racing, as well as providing selections through his Northern Monkey Punter betting service. Twitter @NMPunter