Rather than a special guest, this week I wanted to talk about some of the key information that you can find in our free Better Betting ebook that is made available to all newsletter subscribers. It is a compilation of a lot of the articles I have written over a number of years and there is a considerable amount of punting insight to help improve your results.
Punting Insights You’ll Find
- The number one reason why most punters lose.
- Why it is risky to put all of your eggs in one basket.
- Identifying false favourites from true favourites.
- Form analysis, staking and mindset.
- A ton of valuable betting lessons that you can learn from my free e-book.
David’s Closing Tip:
“ There’s a million myths out there. A lot of what’s been passed down generation to generation doesn’t apply, it’s just repeated over and over but that doesn’t make it fact. “
Episode 39 : Horse Racing Tips, Ebook Highlights and Top Takeaways
Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge.
David Duffield: Hi, this is David Duffield, and welcome to another episode of the Betting 360 Podcast. Rather than have a special guest on today, I wanted to run through some of the key takeaways from the e-book. It’s been around for a couple of years now, and a compilation of a lot of articles I’ve written over a number of years.
There’s some pretty important pointers to take away from it, so for those that don’t want to sit down and read more than 100 pages worth, maybe it’s worth a few minutes of your time to listen in. The first article refers to the number one reason why most punters lose, and that is to only bet when you’re getting value.
A lot of people are a lot more focused on trying to find the most likely winner of the race, rather than spending as much time worrying to find the best value in the race. Only bet when you’re getting value is obviously a key ingredient in winning long term. Making every effort to get the best available odds doesn’t sound too exciting, but it’s vitally important.
Also, the third thing: balancing risk versus reward in the way you manage your money. A lot of people consider the upside, how much they’d like to win on a bet, but they don’t really consider the downside. Next was Paul Makin, a super successful multimillionaire. There’s a lot of the points he’s put out in the past that still resonate today.
A few of those are: don’t count your winnings by the day; the price must be right, you just have to keep taking value; if you want to win, you’ve got to have a professional approach; there’s a whole number of punting tips he’s put out, and they’re well worth taking a closer look at.
“Avoiding an Expensive Mistake”: that’s again to do with bankroll management. It relates to the example of someone that we had where basically by their bank being too small to begin with, or they were betting too large a percentage of their bank to begin with, they missed out on a massive winner.
“Don’t overlook the T in Profit on Turnover”: a lot of people get excited if they hear say a 10% profit on turnover, or a 20%, but they don’t spend enough time worrying about the actual turnover amount.
By that I mean a 10% profit on turnover sounds great, a lot of pros would be very happy with that, but if you’re having … to exaggerate, if you’re having three bets a month, 10% profit on turnover, well you’re going to have to have some exceptionally large bets to pay the bills; whereas if you’re having four bets a day and you’re doing 10% on turnover, that’s fantastic. Then we talk about place betting: if you’re doing it on the TAB and you can … basically if you’re complacent enough, or naive enough, to just do it via the TAB, and you don’t consider the round down or the take out you’ve got to beat in the round down, then that’s why that article’s called “Place Betting for Losers.”
“There Isn’t a Holy Grail”: this if refers to people that want the fast result without necessarily doing the work. It talks about following the hype, back-fitted systems, over aggressive staking again, chasing a hot tips after an exceptional period but not understanding that bearings can work both ways, quitting during the losing run, and there’s a number of other things you can look at there.
“Diversify your Betting Portfolio”: well if you’ve got all your eggs in one basket, that can be risky, so it just discusses a few things to look at, and also to encourage diversification. Look at the amount of time, in terms of the data, and also just understand that by having a few different approaches, if one isn’t going so well, well that can be counter balanced by others doing okay.
“Better odds can double your profits”: again, if you just think of it simplistically, or over simplistically, you might think that if you can get 5% better odds, that will add 5% to your bottom line in terms of your profitability. It’s actually far greater than that, so just take a look at the calculations behind that, they’re not complex, but it’s well worth considering.
“False Favorites”: obviously, they could present opportunities either to lay, or otherwise to bet around them.
“True Favorites”: on the flip side, you can have a look at some of the factors that may contribute to a horse being a genuine favorite rather than a false one.
“Stick With Your Plan”: again a lot of people have a plan, whether that’s in their head or written down, but they don’t always stick with it, which is the most important thing.
“Only Pregnant Ladies are Due”: that explains the betting gambler’s fallacy, and you see it all the time on the race track and casinos. I probably don’t need to say much more about that, but again, it’s worth reading just to explain why, in the short term, that mindset of believing you’re due, is actually false.
“Doubles Betting is Twice as Hard”: a lot of people take a while to understand that the reason bookmakers encourage multi’s is because they’ve got a really big edge on those. It just runs through why that’s the case.
“Follow the Bookie’s Lead”: some bookmakers, certainly not all, but some bookmakers have a pretty good handle on the market, and also have some pretty smart guys betting into them, so there are some circumstances where the bookmaker has a certain horse, either very, very short or at the other end, they’re very willing to lay it, you can get some good pointers from that.
“Betting for a Living” talks about the life of a professional punter and what it takes. “The Results won’t Change unless You Do”: I speak to punters all the time that are more hopeful, rather than strategic, and they basically, they think that things will change despite them going on the way that they always have, and that’s not the case.
“Backing a Winner can be a Bad Bet:” you wouldn’t say that if you were at the ticket window collecting, but what I mean is it’s a simple explanation, but it’s very valid. If you take $1.90 about a coin toss, well, you know, every second bet you’re going to win, you’ll be pretty happy with yourself, but over the course of the night, or longer term than that, you’re going to come out behind, that’s a guarantee.
“Video Analysis”: obviously there’s plenty of opportunities now to watch video replays, so there’s some pointers there, and also some horses to avoid, or the horses that get highlighted and tend to be over-bet.
“Some Sectional Times Talk with Vince Accardi”: it feels like a while ago now that we came across Vince, and he’s been exceptional in the knowledge that he has contributed to our business, and he continues to go from strength to strength.
“Look Behind the Numbers”: it’s about not having just an overview, a helicopter view, of the form; it’s about going into a lot of depth. Some more talk about best odds, some talk about arbitrage betting, which you can try and do on the racing side if you’re backing high some of the bookmakers and laying off of Betfair. Bookmakers aren’t too keen on it.
“Horse Racing Systems”: it’s one that’s been debated for a long time, and the mechanical systems, there’s very few of those that work long term. There are some profiles of horses that can tend to have positive expected value, but a mechanical system, it’s very rare that it’d work as far as the people a while a go would say,
“I want a horse that’s being placed it’s last four runs, with a win percentage over x, and it’s race within x amount of days” – they no longer work, even if they did initially.
“Level Staking versus Progressive Staking”: I’ve been banging this drum for a long time, but they say level staking is for loses and never seen anyone disprove that.
“Be Weary of Following the Smart Money”: a lot of people get in too late in following the smart money, the bird’s already flown. There’s an example there: say for a horse is being backed from $4 into $3.50, well that’s because that $4, a lot of people, potentially some smart guys, thought that was over the odds, but at $3.50, that’s not necessarily still the case, so just to be weary of that and not get in at the bottom of the market. There’s some talk of jockeys and whether they’re underrated or overrated. The betting performance of some will definitely tell you that’s the case. Whether that continues on a longer term basis isn’t certain, but there are some jockey’s with that massive following, but their record doesn’t actually back that up.
“Small Fields and Profits”: it’s worth looking at as well. “Smaller Prices can mean Greater Value”: it’s not new to anyone that’s been on a list for a while, but people think it needs to be double figure odds for a horse to be value. We’ve talked about the favorite long-shot vice a number of times: basically if you want your money to last, back favorites. It sounds boring, but if you’re not going to do any form, you’re money will stay with a lot longer backing favorites than it will backing outsiders. “
Bill Gates’ Punting Lessons”: probably hard to discuss those in depth here, but it’s related to the betting world, and how what he talks about in business and software, again, does actually relate back to the punting.
“The TAB Takeout,” or just the market percentages: it’s something that you really need to understand. An example of the two-horse race was given there.
“How to Avoid being Banned by your Bookmaker”: we have updated this recently. It’s pretty frustrating to have a profitable approach but to not be able to get on. There’s a number of red flags that the bookmakers have to look at, and this is some tips on how to last longer, or hopefully, last long term.
“Some Talk About Barriers”: again, I don’t mean to be repeating myself over and over, but barrier one is not the best barrier as far as profitability goes. Again, profitability is a lot more important than strike rate. You can back a lot of winners from barrier one, but you’re trying to make a profit. I’m not saying exclude barrier one by all means, but what I’m saying is that don’t give that a massive tick, in terms of whether this horse is likely to be a decent price today, it’s actually the other way: barrier one, and two and three even, are over bet, and some of the better bets you can have are drawn out wide, particularly if they have any early speed.
“Race Systems and Barriers”: that’s related to that, and just looks at the importance, or lack of importance, of barriers by race systems.
“Some Lessons from the 10,000-hour Rule”: it mentions The Beatles, Hendrix, Gates, and Obama. I do like to look outside of the betting world to see what lessons we can learn from people that … experts in what they do, so that runs through that.
“Beware of the Peak Performance”: don’t just assume that a horse is going to be able to replicate what it did last start, just like other athletics, horses can put in a peak run.
“Back at the Track”: I don’t get to the races all that often, it’s pretty exciting, pretty good times though when I do. Like so many other punters, it’s a lot easier, a lot more efficient to be based at home. Back at the track just looked at some of the strengths and weaknesses of being on course.
“Bookie Bonuses”: there’s a lot of competition out there for your betting dollar, so you can take advantage of those and basically have a lot of low risk, risk free, or highly profitable bets just by taking advantage of bookmakers trying to entice your dollar over across to their company. There’s some talk of the frustration there: are they actually bookmakers at all? Well, they’re not in the traditional sense of the word.
“Hayes Hurts the Hip Pocket”: David Hayes, massively successful early in his career, and it seems like that’s never worn off as far as the betting public goes. He can control, or have some important into his winning percentage, he doesn’t have a lot into the profit percentage, but it’s diabolical. People keep waiting for the reincarnation, he’s had occasional success since moving to Euroa, but compared to a lot of other leading trainers, he’s not a profitable one to follow. Once again, the disclaimer is I’m not saying lay every runner, or avoid every runner, we certainly back some of his runners, but just as a general rule, Hayes hurts the hip pockets still applies.
“Is the Fairer Sex a Good Betting Proposition?”: this actually came up recently from Wayne Hawkes in the weight for age scale. It looks at mayors and how they compare to the other sex.
“Be Flexible at Flemington”: obviously it’s where a lot of the big carnival days are held, so it takes a close look at Flemington.
“Sports Betting”: It’s easily the number one and fast growing competitor racing, so it runs through a few of the reasons why that’s the case, in terms of how easy it is to follow, and value for money, and media exposure and the like.
“Gone in 60 seconds” talks about how some people spend five or 10 minutes doing the form for a race: that’s not a lot, but they might put in 10 minutes, and once the race is over, they rip up their ticket and move on. Not a great way of learning from you’ve done, so “Gone in 60 Seconds” just takes a look at how you can have a punting lesson from each race and use that to your advantage going forward. Some mention of Hong Kong racing, just a massive market, and an unbelievable amount they turn over there, and interesting that it’s mainly Quinella and Quinella place bettings, a duet I suppose, as opposed to win and win/place, and there’s a lot of exotics as well as far as Super Six and the like.
Macau, I spent some time there, and a lot of … it’s probably low profile for a lot of people still, but it won’t be too long before it matches Las Vegas. It already far surpasses Las Vegas in terms of betting turnover, but even as a destination full of world class resorts and the like, it’s well worth visiting. Some talk of lay betting: it’s only the last few years this has even been possible, but it takes a different mindset, different to approach to be successful to the lay better.
There’s ten tips on horses to lay. It talks about the gun run last start at the end of a long prep, jockeys, barriers, wet tracks and the like about markers. It also talks about staking for lay betting: whether you’re going to later win a fixed amount, or later lose a fixed amount.
“Hope is not a Strategy”: again, more of a mindset article, and well worth reading if you need some help at times, where you’re looking to improve your results, but possibly not getting those so far.
“We’ve Never Had it this good”: as much as there’s some frustrations in the modern day, certainly there’s a number of strengths as well in terms of Betfair, Sky Channel TV at home, top fluctuation, even book makers taking phone bets. It runs into other stuff like Vince Accardi’s sectional times, extensive databases, fast internet, dynamic odds. We’ve got it pretty good, we can’t complain too much.
“It’s not Profit till it’s in your Pocket”: yeah, a lot of people come across this on the race track, but it talks about a Las Vegas example, which is sad and humorous at the same time.
“Odds on, Look on”: we touched on the favorite long-shot buyers. Again, it’s still applies today, and it applies across different industries.
“Fact or Fiction”: there’s a million myths out there. A lot of what’s been passed down generation to generation doesn’t apply, it’s just repeated as fact, but that doesn’t make it fact.
“Playing the Percentages”: again, understanding the percentage, whether that’s Betfair, TAB, or bookmakers.
“Positive Expectation”: often used by poker players, and also I suppose the quantitative side of racing and sports punters, but just understand the importance of positive expectation.
“Pre-post Betting”: I’m sure we can all recall where we’ve got set at what we think is a decent price, and for a number of reasons, it doesn’t work out that way, so just to be aware of that, and once again consider the risk not just the reward.
“Betting More on the Likely Winners”: not progressive, but proportionate staking makes common sense, mathematical sense, punting sense, whichever way you look at it. If you’re stuck with a level staking approach, it’s really worth considering adopting an approach that will smooth out your return somewhat.
Then we talk about rail position and why that’s important: talking about the width of the track, types of turns, length of the straight, seasonal conditions, and most recent rail positions. There’s an article on Kerrin McEvoy, who for a long time there was highly overrated by the betting market. Again, it’s not personal as far as an attack on Kerrin, he doesn’t have a lot to do with the odds, not a lot of control over the odds, but it’s just some things punters undervalue and some things they overvalue.
“The teachings of Tyson”: I do like the quote, “Everyone’s got a plan until they get hit.” Applies to punting, I mentioned it previously in an earlier article.
“Wet Track Worries”: it takes a certain approach, a certain type of horse and form analysis to find horses that relish the wet tracks.
“Weight”: it’s forever been debated, and probably will continue to be, the relative importance of weight.
“Lessons from the World’s Biggest Punter”: there is a fellow that manages close to 100 billion, I think, in a hedge fund, and with that type of responsibility and pressure, he needs to be pretty certain in his approach. We run through a number of the principles he’s applied, because he’s made them public, and see how they apply on a punting basis.
There’s a chap there, Brut Wellington, who is a well known horse breaker, trainer; and we mention the gear changes with Scott Ferguson, who runs the blog, Sport is Made for Living and has a background in the bookmaking industry, other bookmaking firms; also, with a professional punter that has a fairly systematized approach, Chris Debby, I talk him over the course of a couple of years; and Nick Aurbey, who has been on the podcasts a couple of times, goes by the name of Anomaly Nick, and he calls, or describes himself as a technical punter; and finally, Dr. Jeff … I think it’s Heuston, he’s all about horse behavior and what you can learn from the mounting yard. There’s plenty to go through, it is free, so it’s not a sales pitch. Hopefully, if you haven’t already, you can get the chance to take a look at the e book and it inspires you to do some further research on your own, and hopefully develop some profitable strategies.
Thanks for joining us for a slightly unusual version of the podcast, but we’ll be back with a special guest next week. We’ll get someone on for the U. S. Master’s Golf, and someone that’s very successful in the golf betting world. Until then, have a great time, and good luck on the punt.
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