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For many years, the Betting 360 podcast has brought you interviews with hundreds of professional punters, betting experts and industry figures in an effort to see the game from all angles. Now, we’re bringing you something a little different: The Ultimate Form Guide.

We’ve gathered a group of the sharpest racing and betting minds in Australia – plus a couple from across the world – to get their thoughts on many different aspects of form analysis and betting. But to truly present the views “from all angles”, we’re presenting it a little differently. Each episode will be focused not on an individual guest, but on an individual form, betting or racing topic. That way, you can hear from all the experts talk about each topic, together.

In Episode 10, our panel of racing pros talk ratings and rated prices. Are ratings the key the successful punting? Can you get by without them?

“I have a method that turns their predicted rating into a price. I use a 100% market and then look at overlays from there and the bigger the price, the bigger the overlay I need to bet. I prefer to focus on the real winning chances.”
Cameron O’Brien

“I don’t price all races that I bet in because in my experience that’s not necessary. I am focused on horses with certain profiles and traits that I know are historically undervalued by the market.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“I price them between 85% and 90%. I find if I mark them to 100% we’d be backing too many horses for too little profit. I’m looking to back overlays that I’ve got pretty short in my market. I’m not that interested if I can only get on two horses rated $16 that might be $26.
Trevor Lawson

“I’d be loathe to bet without some idea of what price a horse should be. The name of the game is value and finding edges.”
Mark Rhoden

“I subscribe to Ratings 2 Win to warehouse all my comments and ratings. You do use your gut instinct, like when a 90-rated horse comes out in a new prep and does a 104. Do you go halfway? I look at things like the trainer, the age of the horse, and the stage of its preparation. Sometimes you have to be brave and say that a horse just can’t repeat what it did two weeks ago.”
James Jordan

“I have an automated process to come up with my base rating and I’ll then make adjustments to those prices based on a number of things. I do my markets to 100%. Everything I do is off of a rated price.”
The Professor

“I refuse to look at betting markets or listen to what anyone has said until I have done my own markets. Then I’ll look and see where the differences are and try to understand where I’ve made a mistake or whether in fact, they’ve made a mistake. A lot more than half the time I just decide the market is right.”
Rob Waterhouse

“When a horse runs a peak rating, only one time in four will it match or better that rating next time out. They often regress. I’m looking for horses that didn’t run a peak last time.”
Barry Meadow

“I’m not a huge ratings man, I don’t have figures for previous runs. I keep a blackbook rather than a database but I have had GTX for the last 6 months and have found that an incredible tool that I am starting to use more for sprint races.”
Terry Leighton

“Wet tracks really have an impact on turnover and especially if its a Heavy 10. So we do prefer a drier track but you do tend to see a few results on wet tracks”
Tristan Merlehan

“I have found the most powerful tool is through the prism of sectional times and how to profile a horse. You’ll not get a better insight into the potential of a racehorse and their class capabilities.”
Vince Accardi

“I don’t compile an extensive ratings database. I tend to be more qualitative rather than quantitative in my analysis from watching the video replays.”
Wayne Finter

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: The Episodes

Episode 1 Introduction
Episode 2 Speed & sectionals
Episode 3 Class
Episode 4 Weight
Episode 5 Replays & track bias
Episode 6 Jockeys
Episode 7 Trainers
Episode 8 Barrier trials
Episode 9 Wet tracks
Episode 10 Ratings & rated prices
Episode 11 Staking & when to bet
Episode 12 Bookies & bet types
Episode 13 The Exchange
Episode 14 Betting psychology
Episode 15 Betting success

The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 9 – Wet tracks

“The wetter it is, the less I like betting as it becomes all about the track condition itself and the bias or potential bias.”
Cameron O’Brien

“I do bet on wet tracks but sometimes when it’s a deadset bog like a Heavy 10 I will leave that meeting alone. I need to manage my workload and sometimes avoiding really heavy tracks helps me do that without feeling anxious about missing a good opportunity.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“Track ratings that are given out are rarely accurate. I hardly ever see a genuine Heavy 10 (based on times). Sometimes they’ll give it out as a Heavy 10 and it’ll actually only be a Soft 7.”
Trevor Lawson

“I don’t mind betting on wet tracks, you just have to use a few different tools. Watching videos can be important, for example horses with a higher knee action tend to do better. Breeding really comes into play on wet tracks – there are very obviously breeds that handle the wet better than others and you can look up the sires tables at Racenet for wet track versus dry track stats.”
Mark Rhoden

“I’m happy to bet on wet tracks and will pay closer attention to the pattern. I’d rather back horses that are fit and at the lighter weights. I try and avoid horses up in trip and weight.”
James Jordan

“The problem here in Queensland is you don’t always know the range of track conditions you might be dealing with, whether it’s a Soft 5 to a Heavy 10, because of how quickly the rain can come on the day of the meeting. “
The Professor

“Wet tracks are a disaster for the industry because the turnover goes down so much. This idea of watering tracks is a disaster because when you water tracks the grass doesn’t grow roots and tracks give way very quickly and become heavy much faster. It’s a shame they have sacrificed good quality racing for nice-looking green tracks where the trainers don’t complain. “
Rob Waterhouse

“It’s hard to compare previous wet track performances to what they’ll face today so I’m not much of a bettor on wet tracks.”
Barry Meadow

“I think the key thing is to be wary of hopping into anything too thin as I don’t think any horse deserves to be too short a price on the rare wet tracks we see in Western Australia.”
Terry Leighton

“Wet tracks really have an impact on turnover and especially if its a Heavy 10. So we do prefer a drier track but you do tend to see a few results on wet tracks”
Tristan Merlehan

“I do like to bet in wet ground because I can use a lot of tools like the wet track indicator to get a lot of insight that’s far better than just statistics. Understanding wet track profiling means acceleration becomes very important. It gives you a good idea of how much grip they can get on the ground. Horses shorten their stride when they can’t handle the wet.”
Vince Accardi

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 8 – Barrier trials

“Trials aren’t really my thing, but I do watch them when I’m doing the form for a race, especially when a horse won a trial.”
Cameron O’Brien

“I am looking for things like how the horse jumps out of the gate, how they accelerate and then how they settle and relax, whether they’re professional or not. I’m also looking for their turn of foot and then up the straight just how much pressure the horse is put under.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“I’m not as interested in trials as I used to be, as I don’t think there’s an edge there and I’m not looking to back first starters.”
Trevor Lawson

“In NSW the trials are fairly well exposed, especially compared to Victoria. I think they’re very much factored into early markets by price assessors.”
Mark Rhoden

“I do pay someone to watch, time and make comments on trials. I look for everything – times, quiet rides, horses that normally race with blinkers/winkers/visors and whether they’re wearing them in the trial.”
James Jordan

“In assessing trials I pay a lot of attention to times, early speed, how they travel in run and how they finish off relative to the field and relative to what they’re being asked to do by the jockey. The other important thing is what they do after the post.”
The Professor

“I’m not sure that it makes much difference how a horse trials, what is important is that it has trialled.”
Rob Waterhouse

“I don’t just look for fast times. Every trainer has a different procedure and that can even vary from horse to horse.”
Barry Meadow

“My main thing with barrier trials is just making sure you’ve got a happy horse.”
Terry Leighton

“We focus on barrier trials for our Futures markets especially for 2YO and 3YO races where we’re looking for the big flashing light runs.”
Tristan Merlehan

“I look for a good burst of speed at some stage of their trial even if that’s just a sharp 200m or 300m.”
Vince Accardi

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 7 – Trainers

“Trainers are less important than the jockey, especially when the horse is well exposed. The market probably overplays some of the bigger trainers, especially when they’re going through a hot streak. You’re more likely to find value amongst the no-name trainers when they get a horse on the up.”
Cameron O’Brien

“My focus on trainers is to really understand their habits and patterns and their tendencies for when they’re trying to get their horses to peak. Certain trainers fire first-up and others don’t. For example, the Gerald Ryan and Phillip Stokes stables tend to go well fresh, whereas Tony Gollan and Bjorn Baker runners tend to underperform first-up.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“A lot of the bigger trainers have patterns because they have so many horses in work. There will be certain factors such as stage of preparation, race distance, or jockey that are positive or negative.”
Trevor Lawson

“Knowing trainer’s specialties is important, for example, John Sargent’s strong record on fillies and mares out to middle distance and staying trips. Chris Waller tends to get longer preparations out of his horses than someone like Gerald Ryan.”
Mark Rhoden

“Trainers are very diverse. I look at strike-rate and consistency more than the profit on turnover. I also look at the habits of trainers, particularly the stage of preparation and the number of days between runs. Some trainers just don’t like to have them wound up fresh.”
James Jordan

“There are definitely trainers who you want to be with on certain tracks, especially their home tracks. And lay every runner away from those home tracks.”
The Professor

“Some trainers do very well when they send their horses interstate, while others do particularly badly. It takes great skill to have a satellite stable operating well.”
Rob Waterhouse

“The major rule is to avoid lower-ranked trainers. We compared trainers who won more than 20% of their starts for 12 months to those who won less than 10%. The top trainers did 12% better in terms of ROI. The winners kept winning and the losers kept losing, no matter how many sub-categories we looked at.”
Barry Meadow

“Each trainer has their own wheelhouse that they specialise in. For example Justin Warwick over a journey, or Simon Miller with sprinters.”
Terry Leighton

“We’re looking for trainers with a great record with horses first-up or early in their maiden prep as they’re the ones we’re not as confident with in terms of our pricing. We’re looking for that little bit of a lead from the marketplace. But when those horses are backed some times the market over-reacts and those horses get in a little bit too tight. So if you can find the early value, great, but if you miss the price and the market seems to steamroll then don’t be afraid to leave these ones out late.”
Tristan Merlehan

“Other than 2YO races I wouldn’t say trainer form is high on my list of form factors. I may just lower my stake on a horse from a stable that’s out of form.”
Wayne Finter

“I’m really big on wanting to know what a trainer does with a horse after a high exertion race. Do they want to back it up again quickly? Because that can actually be a major disadvantage if trainers aren’t tuned into knowing if their horse needs more time to come good.”
Vince Accardi

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 6 – Jockeys

“The jockey is the second most important thing in the race behind the actual ability of the horse. ”
Cameron O’Brien

“The main thing I’m looking for is jockey changes and what that may mean, especially in terms of intent.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“There’s definitely an edge in opposing horses where they’ve gone from a good class jockey to a negative one – the market often over-rates them.”
Trevor Lawson

“I think a lot of the big punting syndicates use jockey ability heavily so the SP tends to reflect that, maybe less so in the early markets.”
Mark Rhoden

“Jockeys are a huge factor, probably my biggest variable as they often change from race to race whereas trainers don’t tend to. I might improve a horse three lengths based on a jockey switch.”
James Jordan

“A positive jockey change can be an enormous advantage for a horse and I think is something that doesn’t get factored into the market enough.”
The Professor

“It’s intriguing to me that the leading riders tend to dominate the big Group races, but on a Wednesday at Warwick Farm or Sandown they can tend to perform much worse. It’s beyond me why they’re almost lackadaisical at times.”
Rob Waterhouse

“It’s difficult to assess the quality of a jockey because the perceived good jockeys get the best rides, race for the most prizemoney, and win the most races.”
Barry Meadow

“Sometimes you’re getting a free 3kgs with young apprentices because a lot of the kids ride the front runners just as well as the seniors.”
Terry Leighton

“Jockeys are a massive part of the marketplace and rightly so. A lot of pro punters really rate jockeys and many of the early market moves are dictated by this so by the time the race jumps the market has become a lot more efficient in this regard.”
Tristan Merlehan

“I’m wary of backing jockeys with poor track stats because some riders just don’t ride certain tracks very well. They do have their own style of riding. An example is former champion jockey James Spencer – he has a very patient style of riding and loves to drop his horses back and come with a late challenge. When it works it’s scintillating, but you wouldn’t want to be backing him at a track that favours front-runners.”
Wayne Finter

“Every race has a leader so you need to look at the capabilities and idiosyncrasies of that jockey. What do they like or dislike? Many riders find it extremely challenging to be leading and therefore make many errors. Even quality jockeys, sometimes.”
Vince Accardi


You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 5 – Replays & Track Bias

“Replays are very important for lightly raced horses because it gives context to that horse’s rating. The more runs a horse has, the less important replays become because its true ability reveals itself in the form. ”
Cameron O’Brien

“I watch replays of the main metro meetings once I have been through my rating process and assessed the shape and quality of a race. I’m looking for gate speed, how they travel, at what stage of the race they were put under pressure, turn of foot, and the late strength of a horse.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“Just because five on-pacers won on the day doesn’t mean that there was definitely track bias. That’s where sectionals are important. It can be overplayed sometimes and I tend to forgive horses that were in inferior going moreso than bonus horses.”
Trevor Lawson

“I don’t have time to watch replays for every horse of every meeting I cover. I do watch the replays two or three times and also use the Punting Form position in run and lane data.”
Mark Rhoden

“I have a database for how the track played each day which is very important for the future. I’ve got historical rail movements, wind direction and the way the track played going back four years.”
James Jordan

“Replays are a big part of what I do and I have a pretty rigid process that I stick to. I’ll watch every race to see if there was any bias on the day, then go back and really break down each race into sections. Watch the start a few times, up to the turn a few times and then the last section and through the line a few times. I already have my speed ratings for the race to know which horses were advantaged or disadvantaged by the tempo and the bias.”
The Professor

“I employed video watchers back in the mid-1970’s but unfortunately they’re so well watched right now that it’s impossible to get any value out of them. I don’t watch replays. Everything that was a good run on the replays is shorter than its right price.”
Rob Waterhouse

“Be careful not to believe there is a bias when there really isn’t one.”
Barry Meadow

“I review each meeting in-depth and may watch a replay up to 10 times. Don’t just blackbook the flashing light run. I can blackbook horses where two of them went at it in the lead and chopped each other up going many lengths above the benchmark. Or maybe the head-on shows a horse never really go out. My biggest thing is to look for stuff that isn’t the dead obvious.”
Terry Leighton

“There is definitely a key focus throughout a meeting on track bias and after a couple of races we do find punters want to zero in on that. But when we’re analysing runs after a meeting we’ll look closely at heavily backed runners that have failed as there’s generally a reason for that and there will be a good push for them next start.”
Tristan Merlehan

“Track bias is a massive thing. There’s a lot of variability here in terms of tracks – like left or right-handed, flat or stiff, sharp or shallow, etc – so it’s important to build up a profile for each track. “
Wayne Finter

“Rail placement creates the bias and it needs to be understood before a meeting starts. Then after the meeting, you need to understand the lanes and know which runners were favoured or not favoured by where they were in the run.”
Vince Accardi

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 4 – Weight

“We don’t have many races anymore where there’s a real disparity in weights from top to bottom. The compressed nature of our weight scales these days means that weight differences aren’t as impactful as they once were.”
Cameron O’Brien

“It’s simply not true to say that weight doesn’t matter. But you can ignore weight and still do fine as a punter and the same thing applies to other form factors where you can exclude one and still do OK. For many years when I was doing speed figures I ignored weight and still enjoyed a tremendous amount of success as a punter.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“The further you’ve got to go, the more that weight is relevant because you have to carry it for longer.”
Trevor Lawson

“I don’t think weight affects every horse the same way. I believe that horses with a real turn of foot are more advantaged by a weight drop. Conversely, I think horses that are more one-paced are not going to be significantly advantaged by a weight drop or even disadvantaged going up in weight.”
Mark Rhoden

“It is a horse-by-horse proposition but I think weight is more important than some think it is. I pay pretty close attention to it.”
James Jordan

“If anything I think weight is overbet and I don’t really worry about a 1kg or 2kg weight swing here or there.”
The Professor

“Obviously, weight does make a big difference and I’m a firm believer in weight. For those that don’t believe it has an impact, why aren’t they betting up in WFA races? They’d be losing money if they did.”
Rob Waterhouse

“We tracked 100,000 apprentice rides and found no real edge. They win or lose at the rate you’d expect.”
Barry Meadow

“Apprentices going on on-speed horses can offer good value at times but as a rule, you should be wary when they’re on backmarkers.”
Terry Leighton

“We tend to find that punters come for horses up the top of the board so that indicates that weight isn’t as important as many think. But as bookies, we feel that the market can miss horses down the bottom of the weights, especially on wet tracks.”
Tristan Merlehan

“I’m always of the view that horses carry big weights in handicaps because they’re the best horses in the race.”
Wayne Finter

“I feel that when you’re handicapping a race and looking at the true merit of weight you should look at where are you settled after 400 metres and against what kind of race shape? That will determine how much of an impact weight will have on your performance”
Vince Accardi

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 3 – Class

“Class is the ability of a horse to be able to repetitively and consistently overcome the challenges put in front of it.”
“Lower-class horses tend to be less consistent and have a much wider range of what can they do on any given day.”
Cameron O’Brien

“I don’t focus too much on class labels as they have become quite muddled over the years.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“A high-class horse is one that can run quick time, including fast sectionals. The time of the race, sectionals within that time, quality of horse it’s competing against and also the weight carried are all important factors in assessing the class of a horse.”
“I’m trying to find horses that the handicapper hasn’t found yet, particularly horses that have run quicker than class figures for lower class races.”
Trevor Lawson

“Class is two separate things… the class of a race as defined by official handicapper ratings is one. The other is about ‘class horses’ and that is more subjective.”
Mark Rhoden

“I always look at their ability to run time, especially the ability to absorb pressure.”
James Jordan

“Class means time – a horse’s ability to show sustained speed both early and late in a race.”
“Margin spread can be a good indicator of a strong form race.”
The Professor

“The big change since benchmark races were introduced around 2012 is that trainers have become very skilful in placing their horses.”
“The difference between a BM72 on a Saturday and a handicap is not very much in most cases.”
“Many punters get it wrong in set weight races by taking a very short price on a horse with a very high official handicap rating.”
Rob Waterhouse

“I come up with a power rating on every horse at the tracks I follow, to look at horses moving up or down and assess exactly how good this horse is right now.”
Barry Meadow

“The most important aspect is knowing the actual characteristics of a horse – it’s one of the most under-rated aspects of punting. I’m not just guided by the number on a screen.”
“Class is most interesting to analyse at deeper country tracks like Kalgoorlie and Geraldton.”
Terry Leighton

“Class horses tend to be popular with punters and we find it easy to lay those higher up in the weights, as they often look to have the best form on paper.”
“Sometimes you can find value looking for lightly raced horses that were a touch unlucky earlier in their campaigns.”
Tristan Merlehan

“The market really focuses on a horse’s last start performance and its starting price in that race. That SP really influences the market next time out.”
“It’s important to look at the horse’s overall profile. I’d much rather side with one on the up than a 10 year-old that might’ve win a big race five years ago.”
Wayne Finter

“There are many ways to define class but versatility is essential – being able to handle fast or slow speeds. Dry or wet tracks. And be able to overcome bad luck in running.”
Vince Accardi

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 2 – Speed & sectionals

“Times and sectionals are very important, but on their own are basically useless.”
Cameron O’Brien

“Sectionals can be misleading – very good horses can run slow times or average horses can run a quick late sectional.”
Daniel O’Sullivan

“Never assume that a faster overall time always means a better performance.”
Mark Rhoden

“Sectionals are only really useful when used with overall times as part of the form puzzle.”
James Jordan

“Casual form students can definitely get some help by looking at sectionals.”
The Professor

“I believe the way punters look at fast sectional times is wrong, and I like to bet against them.”
Rob Waterhouse

“How a race unfolds early is crucial in judging the merit of a performance.”
Barry Meadow

“I’m a bit different to most punters in that I rely on my eye more than anything and less on data.”
Terry Leighton

“Our use and knowledge of sectional times have progressed, but we still have a long way to go.”
Vince Accardi

You can listen right here, or anywhere you get your podcasts:

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The Ultimate Form Guide: Episode 1 – Intro

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The Ultimate Form Guide: The Experts

Trevor Lawson is a professional punter who’s made his living betting on Victorian racing for almost twenty years. Trevor runs the Melbourne Ratings and Trev’s Bets services at Champion Bets. Twitter @lunchandpunt

Mark Rhoden is a bookmaker turned professional punter. Starting with Mark Read’s IASBet in Darwin, Mark spent many years in the industry which culminated in his role as head trader of NSW racing at Sportsbet. Since leaving Sportsbet some five years ago, Mark has “gone it alone” as a professional punter. Twitter @cotchinsoda

The Professor is a long-time student of the form, he’s is a very successful punter with a long winning track record. He focuses exclusively on racing in South East Queensland, and runs the Queensland Winners service for Champion Bets. Twitter @TheProfessorCB

Cameron O’Brien was bred to be a champion. The son of a professional punter, he’s been producing weight ratings since the age of 15: first learning the Don Scott method and then continually refining his own approach to doing the form over time. Cameron trained as a form analyst under legendary bookmaker Mark Read, and has now been a professional punter for more than 10 years. He runs the Key Bets and Key Race Insights services for Champion Bets. Twitter @Gamblor_PCO

James Jordan started his racing journey on the phones for a corporate bookmaker before taking on various roles in the bookmaking industry. He later moved into TV coverage as a form analyst for Channel 7’s racing coverage, and is now the South Australian form analyst for racing.com. Twitter @James_Jordan

Daniel O’Sullivan is a form analyst who runs The Racing Bureau, which supplies data, software and consulting services to punters as well as a range of racing industry participants. Twitter @TRBHorseRacing

Terry Leighton is a professional punter focused purely on Western Australian racing. He’s been betting full-time for five years now, and is also a contributor to the Betfair Hub. Twitter @PerthRacingGuru

Vince Accardi has been called ‘The Godfather of Sectional Times’. He’s been focused on the science of sectional timing – recording, analysing and digesting times – for over thirty years. He founded and runs Daily Sectionals.

Robbie Waterhouse is a name that needs no introduction to those in racing. The son of leviathan rails bookmaker Bill Waterhouse, Robbie has himself spent a lifetime as an on-course bookmaker, and has recently taken his business online. Twitter @RobWaterhouse1

Tristan Merlehan is another bookmaking “lifer”. The son of on-course bookmaker Lloyd Merlehan, Tristan jumped on the bag himself as soon as he was able. Their bookmaking business has evolved into TopSport, the leading Australian-owned and operated corporate bookmaker. Twitter @TopSport_com_au

Barry Meadow is a US-based professional punter who spent nearly 30 years betting for a living on US racing, as well as writing books on the science of form analysis and betting.

Wayne Finter is a UK-based form analyst who has spent years betting and doing form on UK and Irish horse racing, as well as providing selections through his Northern Monkey Punter betting service. Twitter @NMPunter

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