Building a winning betting model is one thing, but markets adjust and edges erode over time.
Constant review is required to ensure that your model is still relevant and your edge is still there.
That’s just as important no matter who you are – whether you’re a pro punter, a part-timer researching your own selections, or following somebody else ratings or tips. You’re betting your own money, so it’s good to know what’s happening with it!
There’s a lot of different ways to review betting data, so we thought we’d have a quick look at one method used by a professional analyst to trigger further research.
Rick’s Racing Model, built by our analyst Rick Williams, is derived from his own custom-built database with thousands of variables. On top of that he also imports data from a wide variety of external suppliers. While there’s a lot of system firepower that allows Rick to interrogate and refine his database, he likes a visual aspect when reviewing existing results through some simple filters.
These charts give a good insight into the way visual cues can assist with giving punters a quick idea of where things are working and where they are not.
Firstly, check out this chart:
This shows cumulative profit based on Rick’s own internal trainer ratings, with 1 being the highest ranked for that race. It’s designed to show at which level the bulk of profits (for this particular model) are coming from.
What it tells us is that of 105.98 total units profit, 22.82 was derived from trainers rated 1. 34.85 units were derived from trainers rated 1 and 2. There’s then 75.29 units profit derived from trainer rated 1, 2 or 3. So a big jump for trainers rated 3, and then the line starts to smooth out. No profits were made backing the group of horses with a trainer rank of 9 or worse.
Rick also has the same chart for his own jockey ratings:
The jockey chart shows us that of the 105.98 units total profit, 87.01 units have been derived from jockeys rated 1 or 2.
These charts offer a good, quick view of where the majority of profits are coming from, and where possible changes could be made to the betting model in order to streamline betting and hopefully increase profit on turnover. The catch of course is to avoid backfitting in any way. See below for examples of other filters:
Daily updates and stand out selections that win at a high strike rate – what more could a punter want?
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