Where do you go to get the best prices?
The betting market is changing, and it’s become a bit unclear.
Many swear by Betfair. Others say you now have to be on-track to get the best price for your bet.
We had a look at some of the available data for a recent raceday – Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick, on Saturday April 13th.
This was the most recent “big” raceday in Australia, with big crowds (due to the presence of Winx in her last ever run), and big betting volumes nationally. The Winx factor also meant we had one very, very short favourite, while other races were more wide open.
We used SP, basically because it’s the easiest data to get. These are closing prices, so the last price displayed by each bookie. They may be up for 5 minutes before the jump, or 10 seconds… which affects how easy they are to get and how relevant the prices are. Still, it’s a reasonable measure across different wagering operators and dividend types.
TopSport have consistently the best market percentage of the corporate bookies measured.
We also calculated both the best price of the corporates at close, and the third-best price. These figures are of course far better than the ‘New South Wales Official Price’, which takes, we believe, the sixth-best price from corporate bookies.
This again illustrates the issues with the Official Price calculation: it’s simply not representative of what’s truly available. The 10% commission rate in NSW makes a huge difference to the Betfair SP price. Even still, it’s extremely competitive with other prices available.
The 10% commission rate in NSW makes a huge difference to the Betfair SP price, as expected (the figures we’ve listed are after commission has been applied). It’s been widely noted that NSW racing is now the most expensive product on Betfair – worldwide.
Even still, it’s extremely competitive with other prices available.
The ABA Price (available from www.abaprice.com) is a weighted average of a group of on-track bookies. It came up a little higher here than what we expected. Anecdotal reports suggest the on-track price, particularly in Sydney, is extremely competitive. This would be illustrated better by looking at prices from individual rails bookies and working on what is the best widely available price, rather than a weighted average of all. However, that data is not (yet) available.
We asked Australia Bookmakers Association CEO Peter Fletcher for his thoughts on the ABA figures
“The ABA price is at its most competitive during the main period of betting leading up to a race. from about the twenty-minute mark to about five minutes pre-race,” said Fletcher.
“This is when most punters bet.
“Very close to actual race start, the comparative market (off course) catches up as they narrow their percentages and move more towards our prices.
“At race jump there is less of a difference as is reflected in the SP results comparison.
“We believe one of the main advantages of the ABA prices is that any punter can get a sizeable and competitive price bet on at these odds, which is not always the case with other operators.”