- Matching a tipster’s official results is the most critical element of following a membership service
- What the current environment tells us, and how to take advantage of it.
It’s great to be part of a winning betting subscription.
Of course, what’s extremely important is that you can match those results with your own betting. Otherwise, the official winning results are meaningless.
Can you match the official prices of Champion Bets analysts?
Yes, you can… so let’s look into how it’s done
Matching A Tipster’s Official Results: Odds Recording Policy
For Champion Bets racing packages, the official odds recording policy is as follows:
- All bets will be released once minimum bet limits are in place, ensuring all punters can get a decent bet on. Unfortunately, Western Australia are yet to implement minimum bet limits – though the process to do so is underway.
- Some bets are recommended at a tote option, such as Best Tote / SP or Best of the Best (BOB), and thus are not time-sensitive – they can be placed any time up until the race (BOB is generally cut off half an hour before the race). BOB is always best option here, and is available at VicBet for all Australian racing, every day.
- For bets recommended at a fixed price, the third-highest corporate bookmaker’s price at the time of the release will be recorded.
Matching A Tipster’s Official Results: The Environment
Most packages release their bets early, when minimum bet limits have just kicked in. There are a few points to make about the current state of Australian racing markets at this early time of the day:
- Market percentages are extremely high, far above what they’ve ever been. However, within this there are often still horses which many serious form students consider to be significantly mispriced.
- Volume on the Betfair exchange is basically non-existent
- There’s very little variance in price across corporate bookmakers. They simply copy each other. In fact, most have software that does this for them instantly. While there may be one or two bookies here or there that are a roll or two different, generally the prices are very consistent across the board
- With some packages – successful winners, basically – prices can be crunched in extremely quickly. It’s not the old days where bookies would just move prices based on volume of money. Everybody bets on account, the bookies know who everybody is, and they know who’s a winner or who’s following winning tips. As soon as just one or a few people back a horse, software “turns it off” immediately, ensuring they take no more bets on it – or take them at a much lower price. You may have less than a minute to get on at the early price before it’s shortened dramatically. It’s common for prices to be cut in half in one move in order to avoid any more smart money.
Matching A Tipster’s Official Results: Bet Releases
Champion Bets release recommended bets via three channels: you member’s portal on the website, our smartphone app, and email.
It should be noted that the website and the smartphone app publish quicker than the time it takes for an email to be sent and received. This is simply the way the technology works. It’ll only be a few seconds, but that could prove important with some releases.
So if you want to the quickest, use the website or app to get your bets.
Matching A Tipster’s Official Results: How?
In the first instance, you need to be quick to capture the right price. You simply do not have time to surf across a number of different browser windows or apps, comparing prices. By the time you’ve done that, the early price may be gone.
You have two options:
This is far-and-away the best choice. Dynamic Odds is an odds-comparison desktop app which, crucially, allows you to bet directly into your bookie accounts at the click of a button. So you have all available prices in front of you, and can bet extremely quickly with whichever you choose. It can’t be beaten and should mean you always match official results if you’re ready to bet upon release – in fact, you may well beat them given one bookmaker may often have a price slightly higher than any other, and the official result is the third-highest price.
- Stick to one bookie
As we said, at release you don’t have time to be surfing across multiple bookmakers. So if you don’t use Dynamic Odds, or are maybe caught short with only a mobile etc, the best approach is generally just have one bookie ready to go for each release and place your bets there. While you might miss the very best price… you may also get it, if you choose the right bookmaker!
The fact that all the major bookies now have such similar prices means you’ll often be able to catch the third-best price anyway, which will match the official price. Of course, it’s probably prudent to change it up and use different bookies on different days, if this is your approach.
Matching A Tipster’s Official Results: What If I Miss A Fixed Price?
Some analysts will publish their “minimum price” with a bet. You may still bet if the price is above that. You won’t match the official recorded price, but the analyst is saying that it’s still a value bet above the minimum price, so over time you’ll still wind up in front.
Otherwise, if a price has been slashed by the bookie, you’re often best to wait until late in betting before deciding whether to bet. This is when you can best utilise Betfair, as the liquidity is in the exchange and the market percentage will be extremely low, meaning better odds. If there’s been significant money for other horses throughout the day, you may find the price of your horse has rebounded and you can get on.
If it doesn’t get back out to the recommended price, you have a decision to make. But remember… continually taking prices below what’s recommended will not end well. Err on the side of caution… the odd bet here or there won’t hurt, but it’s certainly not something you want to be doing continually.
Like anything that’s lucrative, you need to put in a little extra planning and work to make you reap the rewards. Once you’re set up and know the lay of the land, matching official prices shouldn’t be an issue.
As always, get in touch with us if you have any questions or comments.