Our Kiwi analyst Chris was a guest on the Betting 360 Podcast last year. Knowledge of this kind is always relevant, so we look back on his major points.
Data vs Gut
I probably use a combination of both. I have the data here and then it’s just getting across the field.
I guess I look at the race data first, and then I’ll have a look at what type of race it is, the jockeys and trainers involved, and what sort of horses will more than likely be peaking.
Frontrunners vs backmarkers
Because a lot of the races I’m betting into are maiden races or races where there’s horses who are only lightly raced, quite often a horse’s pattern is not sort of set in stone yet. I don’t really bother with speed maps for those type of races. For more tried horses I’ll look at where they’re probably going to settle but I think just about everyone these days has an idea of a speed map, so I don’t get too carried away with them.
Generally, I’m just looking for the best horse or the horse that’s likely to improve the most and go with them.
Trainers & jockeys
They play a decent role. Obviously, some trainers in New Zealand really dominate the racing here and they’re quite well known. There’s a few top-end jockeys as well, who, when you get the combination of both, it’s normally a good sign. I mostly concetrate on their recent form, but it’s quite well known over here in terms of who are the best trainers and jockeys.
If I’ve got two horses that I think of equal ability, and one’s carrying 6kgs less than yes, but, as a general rule, I don’t use weight that much.
They’re a bit tricky. I think trainers and jockeys are a lot more cagy now with the trials because they’re so accessible, so you have to take some of the results and some of the times with a bit of a grain of salt.
I’m watching the trial and seeing what the horse is doing. Even then, they might not be fully wound up or they might be having their first jog around the track for the first time in six months, so you’ve just got to be wary.
I like to look at the first few races, generally, just to see how the track is playing, and there’s just so much variation with wet tracks in New Zealand. Once the track is into heavy I have 6 or 7 different classes of heavy in New Zealand. It’s tricky work.
In those early races I’m looking at where the horses are running. Are they on the inside? Is the track cutting out? Is it raining at the time or is the track puggy or is it loose? All sorts of things like that.