Punting profits: EV? PoT? Overs?

Expected value (EV), profit-on-turnover (PoT) and percent overs (% overs) are all terms more serious punters are familiar with. At the same time they can be confusing, especially when it comes to calculating them and trying to determine punting profits!

In this article I’ll demystify these terms, explain the calculations, and bring it all together to show it all leads to one key concept.

Same same

The good news is that EV, PoT and % overs all mean the same thing.

They’re the average profit you can expect on a bet over the long-term.

For example, if your EV (or PoT, or % overs) on a bet is 0.1 or 10%, then on average, in the long-term, you would expect to make $0.10c profit for every $1 you bet.

And while that might not sound like much, once you multiply it over thousands of dollars in bets, it ends up being a significant amount.

Calculating punting profits

We have three calculations to talk about – EV, PoT and % overs. So here they are in one hit:

Expected Value (EV) = (Profit When You WinChance of Winning) + (Profit When You LoseChance of Losing)

Profit on Turnover (PoT) = Profit / Turnover

% Overs = (Bet PriceRated Price) / Rated Price

Despite the different terms, when you use the same example in each calculation, you’ll see that they all produce the same result.

For example, let’s say you’re betting on heads in a coin flip (50% chance to win) and you’re offered $2.20 on heads. We know a fair price (which we could call the rated price) in this situation would be $2.

Let’s work out the numbers for the EV, PoT and % Overs:

EV = (Profit When You WinChance of Winning) + (Profit When You LoseChance of Losing)
EV = ($1.20 x 0.5) + (-$1.00 x 0.5)
EV = 0.60 – 0.50
EV = 0.10

For Profit on Turnover (PoT) we need to include our expected total stake and profit. So we make some basic assumptions here… we flipped the coin ten times for five heads and five tails, and staked $1 each time.

PoT = Profit / Turnover
POT = (Profit on Heads + Profit on Tails) / (Total Amount Bet)
POT = ($6 – $5) / $10
POT = $1 / $10
POT = 0.10

% Overs = (Bet Price – Rated Price) / Rated Price
% Overs = ($2.20 – $2.20) / $2.00
% Overs = $0.20 / $2.00
% Overs = 0.1

Even though we’re playing with different numbers in each calculation, you can see they all produce the same result: 0.10, or 10% overs.

So whenever you’re looking at punting profits, just remember: EV, PoT and % overs are the same thing.

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By:
Rod

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