If you read much of our content you’ll know that the key to winning on the punt is getting value. So how do you know you’re betting to value? A reliable set of race ratings will tell you that.
(If you’re not totally across with the concept of value in betting, and why it’s required to win, then you should have a read of our free eBook).
With race ratings, you know exactly the price you need on any given horse to ensure you’re betting to value.
What should you do with race ratings?
Our Melbourne Ratings membership, run by pro punter Trevor Lawson, provides members with full race ratings for every Melbourne metro meeting – Saturdays, Wednesdays, Friday nights at Moonee Valley and other feature and carnival days.
There’s a summary below of what you get as a Melbourne Ratings member. But what should you do with those valuable rated prices?
Option 1: For those who want a lot of action, you can simply back all the overlays in every race. So wherever you can secure a price greater than the rated price, you bet.
Does that mean you need to set around and constantly watch prices? You can if you like, but the easiest way to do it is to use Betfair SP. Not only is it a low-margin market that pays great prices, Betfair also make it absolutely simple to bet to value – because you can input a minimum price when you place your SP bet. If the final Betfair SP price is higher, your bet is on. If it’s not, your bet isn’t placed. It’s a fantastic way to ensure you’re only backing the overlays. This guide shows you exactly how to use Betfair SP.
Option 2: If you’re a little more selective and only want to bet where Trev has a high degree of confidence, then you can do that too! Trev is certainly more selective with his own betting, and provides updated throughout each meeting as to what he’s doing in each race. Just follow his instructions!
What you get
Members receive a ratings spreadsheet containing all races for the meeting. Here’s a sample of what a race looks like on Trevor’s ratings sheet. As you can see, it gives you all the information you need to bet…
The first seven columns are regular form guide information. This consists of saddlecloth number, last ten starts, horse name, trainer, jockey, barrier and weight.
Following that comes the information from Trevor himself:
Map: the runner’s expected settling position in the race, as per Trevor’s speed map. As a member, you also get a copy of Trevor’s speed maps for the meeting.
Market percentage (Mar %): this is the winning chance percentage that Trevor has assigned to the horse after doing the form. As a punter, Trevor frames his markets to around 85% or so. This builds in a margin for him on his rated prices when looking for overlays.
Rated (rated price): this is calculated from the market percentage, and expresses the horse’s chances as a decimal price. If the bookies are offering a price greater than this, the horse is an overlay (‘overs’) or a value bet. If the available price is lower, it’s an underlay (‘unders’) and backing the horse would not represent value.
Stake: this is the recommended stake if backing the horse. The default setting is to collect five units (ie. 5% of your total betting bank) on the rated price for each bet. However, if Trevor is more or less confident on a certain race, they may adjust the confidence level on the sheet accordingly. The example shows a confidence level of 100% (the default) – adjusting this simply changes the figures in the stake column in line. For example, changing this figure to 200% would double all stake amounts. You can change this yourself on the sheet as well to reflect increased or decreased confidence in the race.
Outlay: this is simply a $ figure for the stake based on your own unit size. The default is $100 per unit, however punters enter their own betting bank into the spreadsheet and the outlays automatically adjust to reflect their unit size.
That covers the basic information on the sheet. It can easily be printed out to take to the track or pub.
For those at home in front of the computer, the spreadsheet also offers interactive features to help you to calculate and track your bets easily.
The interactive options are as follows:
Play: there are three different options you can select here: Back, Save or Scratched:
Back: select this when you’re backing the horse for a full bet to be calculated.
Save: this allows you to automatically calculate a saver bet, rather than a bet at the full calculated stake. This calculates a stake on that horse that will see you break even on the race overall (allowing for your other bet/s) should it win.
Scratched: if a horse is scratched, this automatically recalculates the entire race market by redistributing the market percentages from the non-runner to the remaining starters. This adjusts the rated prices and stakes for a post-scratching market.
Odds: enter the fixed odds you obtained on your bet.
Book / Time: for record-keeping purposes and to easily follow up your bets, you can record the bookmaker you bet with and the time you placed your bet.
Result: simply enter ‘1’ against the winner to calculate your collects and profit.
Stake: you can adjust the stake column manually here as well – the cell will turn yellow and the outlay will adjust.
Over a meeting, this race ratings sheet is a great interactive tool to easily piggy-back a pro punter, calculate your bets, and track your overall activity and financial position. Everything you need to know about your day on the punt is right there in front of you.
Mathematically, betting to value is the only way to make money on the punt. Trevor Lawson’s race ratings allow you to do this, and the interactive sheet is a great way to track it.
Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.
As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.
If you're keen to win, it’s the only way to punt.