Stradbroke Handicap, why punters lose

The vast majority of punters are long-term losers – most estimates put it at about 97%. And there’s one key reason, more than any other, why punters lose.

They have no idea of a horse’s value odds.

They are literally guessing about whether the horse they’re looking to back is over the odds.

But guesswork won’t make you long-term profits. So if you’re looking to improve your results there are three consistent factors that every successful punter applies.

(1) Understand why punters lose: You should only bet when you’re getting value

If you don’t have a minimum price for your selection to be value, then you’re betting blind. And the concept of value shouldn’t be based on your gut instinct or the opinion of TV or radio pundits.This is so often why punters lose.

Instead, the minimum or rated price must be the result of rigorous and objective form analysis. Too many losing punters fall in love with a horse and back it regardless of price. That horse may be a great bet at odds of $5. But at $3 it could be well under its true price. How would you know unless you had quality rated prices?

The concept of value comes back to the percentage chance of that horse winning the race. You need to be confident that you’ve done sufficient form study to make an accurate assessment. If your analysis has identified the horse has a 40% chance of winning the race, it’s a good bet at odds of $3.00. On the other hand, it’s a good lay at $2.00.

Having access to quality rated prices and then the discipline to only bet when you’re getting value is a non-negotiable factor in long-term punting success.

(2) Make every effort to get the best available odds

Betfair, and other options such as Best of the Best, are very important for punters. Obviously it should be easier to beat a market percentage of 105-110% than the 118% of the TABs.
But many losing punters are not prepared to be funded at a handful of betting accounts to make sure they’re getting the best odds available.

(3) Balance risk versus reward in the way you manage your money

Many punters are long-term losers not because they can’t pick a winner, but because they have a very haphazard approach to staking. In percentage terms they bet too much of their bank each race and have too many bets each day. And then the size of their bet is determined by whether they are winning or losing on the day.

Long-term winning punters are business-like and methodical in their approach. They start each day with a definite plan and won’t waiver from it, regardless of whether they are having the best or worst punting day of their life.

On the other hand, almost every mug punter ‘wings it’ without any real plan for what they are going to do in the hustle and bustle of an afternoon’s racing.

Many follow one of two paths which both lead to increasing the size of their wagers throughout the day:

(1) they find themselves in a losing position and start chasing to get back square, or

(2) they are in front and decide to go for the big win.

Both paths are a fast-track to disappointment. Yet they’re repeated on a regular basis by those who struggle to make good decisions when in punting mode.

I’d like to be as certain of getting the quaddie tomorrow as I am in saying this:

If you only bet when you’re getting value, make every effort to get the best odds, and manage your money well, you will definitely be a more successful punter.

Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.

As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.

If you're keen to win, it’s the only way to punt.

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