Winning on the horses is little more than a dream for some people. Many are on the lookout for an amazing system that will make them untold riches.
They really want to believe that every day should be a winning day. But I have some bad news for anyone still chasing the punting ‘holy grail’…
I’m sorry, but it doesn’t exist.
Nobody is winning on the horses every day or even every week. Nobody achieves 100% profit-on-turnover. There’s no amazing system that will make you rich overnight.
The truth is that punting success is about doing the hard work required to have a profitable edge. And once you have a profitable edge, you need the discipline and money management to take advantage of it.
The ‘pot of gold’ mentality inevitably ends up with a busted betting bank. Here are a few of the reasons why…
Swallowing the hype
I’m happy to be installed as the President of the 100% PoT Sceptics Association.
I’d wager every last dollar I have against anyone who wants to try to validate their success in achieving this level of profitability – over any reasonable number of selections.
My money would be pretty safe because it simply isn’t possible to achieve 100% PoT over a decent volume of bets. Yet many punters subscribe to services or purchase systems with ridiculously high profit claims. And are then they’re surprised when their own results are break-even or worse.
Winning on the horses with backfitted systems
There are a number of software programs that allow you to develop and test your own betting approaches. But many punters fall into the trap of backfitting the rules to manipulate very good results.
For example, they might test a last-start winner system with a few basic rules and see that it breaks even. But they then go through the results. And tweak the rules to such an extent that a very solid profit is made. This can be okay if the rules are (a) logical, (b) don’t reduce the sample size below what is considered a valid sample , and (c) the results aren’t reliant on one or two big priced winners to achieve profitability.
But a much better method is to have a ‘hold-out sample’. For example, if you have three years of data, conduct your research on two years and save the other year as a hold-out sample to test your new approach.
A good rule of thumb is the fewer the rules, the less likely it is to be backfitted. Hence the more likely it is to achieve similar results when you go live with real money.
Another reasonable suggestion is to expect half the return going forward. For example, if the system you tested achieved a 20% PoT in the hold-out sample without any backfitting, then 10% PoT is a reasonable expectation going forward.
Most punters outlay too much per bet. If you average a 25-30% strike-rate you are highly likely to experience losing runs of ten or more fairly regularly. Yet this kind of losing streak wipes out a lot of punters. Winning on the horses is possible, but you’re going to have losing streaks along the way. You need to be able to ride them out.
Chasing a hot tipster after an exceptional period
Punters gravitate towards tipsters who have been red-hot recently, and often jump on board after a very good winning streak.
The only problem is this ‘streak’ is just that, a short-term above average performance that simply isn’t sustainable long-term. When the tipster’s performance reverts back to normal, the punter who missed the very profitable period now has to be able to persevere through a rough patch.
Think about it. Say Joe Blow has shown he can make 5% on turnover long-term But for the past month he’s at 50%. Do you think he is suddenly a 10 times better tipster and can keep up that sort of profitability?
It’s far more likely that this is a short-term spike. And his results will soon come back down to his long-term average.
Quitting during a losing run
If you allocate a certain amount of dollars as your betting bank, why drop it when your bank is only half-gone?
Assuming that you have done your homework and the method or tipster you’re following is proven over two or more years, why jump off just because it’s going through a bad run? Losing streaks are inevitable, they are a fact of punting life and your staking plan should allow for this.
If you know the method has had 20 straight losers previously, then don’t suddenly stop betting when you have had 10 straight ‘live’ losers.