How To Pick A Winning Tipster From A Loser

Rod shows you how to separate the cream from the crud

Spring racing Melbourne Cup

With every man and his dog selling their tips online these days, it can be hard to separate the cream from the crud when it comes to finding a good tipster. There are several factors to consider but if I had to give my most important advice, it would be to analyse their record.

In this article, I’ll run through what to look for when analysing a tipster’s record and how to spot the traps to make sure you end up in the black and not losing your hard earned to a bad tipster.

Public Record

In order to analyse a record, there needs to be one in the first place! When a tipster doesn’t have a public record it’s a tell-tale sign that something’s NQR. After all, if you’re profitable and want to sell your tips, why wouldn’t you have a public record?

You can email and request a record and while that helps, it’s not quite the same as a published record (as I’ll describe below). The reply itself often tells you a lot about the tipster. It’s amazing how often you get the run around or testy reply from someone who tells you “we don’t provide public records”.

Price

Every selection can be a good or a bad bet – it all depends on the price. A common way tipsters make themselves look better than what you’ll experience is by quoting inflated or unrealistic prices. Even small differences in price can have a big impact on results. 

There are several factors to consider when it comes to prices on a record.

Firstly, are there any big-priced winners or massive returns that inflate the results? Tipsters are entitled to big wins but when the biggest return is 100 units and the next closest is 10, you need to eliminate the 100-unit return as an outlier and analyse the record without that result to know what you can realistically expect from the package.

You also need check whether prices are realistic, achievable and available to you. Does the tipster quote the best price in the market every time he backs a tip? If so, you can expect to do worse than their record because no one gets the best price every time. Dynamic Odds has historical odds fluctuations on each bookie, which makes it a good place to confirm the availability of prices.

Good tipsters quote lower-than-the-best price in their results, so you do the same or better. They can do this in several ways by quoting the 3rd best price, using prices from a small group of bookies (as opposed to the whole market), or using a price type available to everyone such as Top Fluc, Top Tote or Betfair SP.

It’s important to check how prices are recorded and check there’s a price recording methodology. That makes sure you can match the tipster’s price, and sometimes do better to balance out the times you miss the quoted price.

Some tipsters are so good or operate in such small markets that their prices do not last long once their tips are released. Those prices can be matched with some basic preparation and preparedness but if you aren’t available to bet at the time their tips are released, then you shouldn’t subscribe to their service. Likewise, you should also check you have access to the bookmakers the tipster uses.

While you can still make good money with time commitments and restricted bookie access, it’s good to work out the affect that will have on your profits before you sign up to a tips package.

Staking

The amount the tipster bets on each selection (i.e. their staking) can raise a flag when it comes to tipsters. Quite simply, I immediately question any tipster who flat stakes (bets the same amount on every bet).

Tipsters should bet different amounts relative to the price they rated their selection at (bet more on favourites and less on roughies) and their opinion on the selection (bet more on higher value selections). Flat staking is a poor approach that has me questioning the tipster right off the bat, which is a poor starting point when following a tipster.

Scratchings

Some tipsters don’t adjust their records when a horse is scratched, so their prices are recorded at better prices than anyone else obtained. That will have a minor effect on results but it’s more a measure of how genuine the tipster is and whether they do the right thing when it comes to recording their results.

Been Around A While?

When it comes to analysing a record, it’s good to know when the service started as a public service.

Some tipsters and tipping sites provide “public” results on matches and races that were completed before the service went public. The issue with that is two-fold. The tipster can start their record on an upswing and simply not include losing runs before it. Worse still, the bets could be made up altogether.

Private results may be genuine, but the point is the bets have not been publicly scrutinised, and it is too easy to tinker with a private record. Nothing beats results that have been tipped to paying members and available on a public record because if there’s one certainty in punting, it’s that members will let you know when their results do not match the record!

Being in the industry a long time (two or more years) is another good sign. Time suggests the tipster has survived the ups and downs and remained at the top of their game. Poor tipsters tend to get found out within a couple of years, either because they didn’t pass the “pub test” (i.e. poor service, bad reputation) or simply because their tips didn’t make a profit and they couldn’t survive due to dwindling memberships.

New Tipsters

New tipping services start all the time, so these services cannot meet the criteria I describe above. That said, they can still be good investments. In the case of new tipsters, it should be made clear to prospective members that any results provided are from a trial or test period. Too often I see months of results appear in the public record of a new tipster who’s just started tipping publicly! That’s not a genuine public record.

With new tipsters, it comes down to how much trust you can place in the tipster or tipping service. Does the tipster have a good reputation in the industry? Is the tipping site reputable and provides other profitable tipping packages? That takes some research but if you can answer “yes” to those questions, it can certainly be worth following a new tipster when they’re at the peak of their powers.

Summary

There are lots of great tipsters around and a lot of bad ones too. Analysing a tipster’s record takes a little more work than just subscribing to a tipster that “seems alright” but given it’s your money on the line, it’s worth doing a bit of research to make sure you’re investing your hard earned on tipster who’s going to deliver the goods.

Rod heads up the extremely profitable High Low membership, which has over $85,500 profit next to it’s name since launching in November 2015.

What’s more, October will be the 21st straight winning month, and 34th of 36 overall.

It simply does. not. lose.