November 9th, 2016: We’re excited to announce our partnership with an expert UK horse racing analyst who finds good value bets five nights per week.
Working closely with the brains behind our highly successful Golf Syndicate (currently closed to new members to protect dividends) he has achieved better than 10% Profit on Turnover for each of the 3 years he has been operating privately.
Bets are recommended at Betfair SP (which has massive liquidity on all of these races) or with local corporate bookies, which means that even if you are are limited at some bookies you can still get on.
The UK racing package is informative yet easy-to-follow, allowing both novice and professional punters alike to quickly and easily make quality bets.
It’s exceptional value and of course the Profit Guarantee applies to both quarterly and annual packages!
Download – Excel Results Sheet.
An example update and extensive Q&A is below.
Example Update: Monday November 7th
Two winners and a faller on Friday. Kelka won in very commanding style and will be seen again soon I expect. Beau Du Brizais was outpaced before rallying and fell at the last.That horse will benefit from a longer distance and some cut in the ground so we might be backing it again. Some good racing later this week, with a few nice types making an appearance. The weather is still dry in a lot of the country.
We have two bets today, one at Kempton and one at Carlisle.
The first race at Carlisle is a tricky handicap, so I would not be keen to side with the favourite at its current price of 2.60. Stone Quercus does looks to hold the best form but the horse has raced at Musselburgh and Perth for his best performances to date. Both of those are tight and flat layouts, while Carlisle is a different type of test, stiff and undulating. I prefer the chances of a horse that won here last time for the Grant and Hughes combination.Theatre Act should get ground that is just about OK for her today, and on my ratings she should be a fair bit shorter and the favourite much longer in the betting. At 5.50, we can back this one each way.
At Kempton, I hear very good things about Top Tug in the novice hurdle at 1.00. The King stable are adept at getting these ex-flat horses to jump well, and Top Tug was a decent performer at trips up to 1m 4f on the level. This pace today will be very steady for him and he should be able to up the tempo two out and take care of these. The second favourite does not make any appeal so I think we should take the price on this selection.
Suggested Bets – Monday 7th November
1.10pm Carlisle (Race 1) – Theatre Act, 0.5 Units Each Way at 5.50 with Bet365 (BOG +), back this one down to 5.00 which you can get with Ladbrokes, Hills, Sportsbet., TabTouch, Betstar, Centrebet. Ladbrokes and their affiliates have 1.90 the place which is better than the others.
1.00pm Kempton (Race 1) – Top Tug 1.50 Units Win at 2.10 with Bet365, Hills, TabTouch and Ladbrokes etc. There is a little bit of money at better prices on Betfair right now.
I was actually never really a punter for a long time. It is only in the last ten or so years that I really began to bet seriously and it took over as my main source of income. It all just came from the intense knowledge that I gained from managing horses, syndicates and owners’ bookings. that was how I started in racing, as a manager rather than a punter. I started to build my own ratings so that it helped with buying horses for owners and syndicates and placing them in races.
Then I worked with an owner who is a very serious and shrewd punter and he asked for me to do some ratings and information a slightly different way. That increased my profits and I still provide him with my numbers even though he does not own horses any more. He showed me how to assess things that made my results very smooth in terms of strike rate and profitability. Some other punters and groups have asked to access the ratings but I only really give them out in races where an owner might have runners.
Over time, the ratings and the betting summaries have become the biggest part of my work. I find that the blend of the ratings, the knowledge of the stables, the horses and the conditions up and down the country really help. I attend the tracks maybe four times a week and know almost all the courses very well. One thing about the UK courses is that many of them are completely unique and they all have their own set of features. Some are stiff, some uphill near the finish, some sharp, some do not handle any rain etc. When you are out there walking the tracks and placing horses then you really begin to know them inside out. Jockey feedback after races is also important. I think the one thing in my ratings that is unique is the adjustments for the course conditions.
How are the selections generated?
I keep my own ratings for every race that is run in the UK. It helps with race planning, buying horses, advising owners and punters and just general knowledge of the horses that are running around each day. To do that, I watch most of the race replays and I base a horse’s run on time, class and the conditions on the day. I also upgrade horses if they have had a long lay-off or if the stable is out of form. Likewise, I downgrade them if they run below average in their preferred conditions or if the stable is in form and they run poorly. I do not cover the all-weather or Irish racing. Doing the ratings for the UK races on the turf plus the jumps is enough work. If a horse is coming back from an all-weather run then I use a variation on the Racing Post rating, use the Betfair price, or avoid the race.
I used to take the ratings and then price every horse up using some complex calculations. Now I just compare my order to Betfair. The Betfair markets are very accurate. 6/4 chances win very close to 40% of the time and so on. I now just use Betfair as a solid market guide. I compare the market there to my prices and I know what type of horses that offer me value. They are usually ones where the stable is in good form, or where I am opposing a favourite where the stable is out of form. Likewise with the conditions, I oppose horses where the market does not fully understand the horses preferred conditions. The same approach again with stable news and talking horses. I know which yards will have a propensity for their horses to shorten too much or drift too much.
I put all of that together and I am very selective with the races that I bet in. I do not want to bet in competitive races. I like the races where there are only a few chances and where I can really find out and understand the leading horses preferences, current fitness and also the confidence and performance of their stable at the time. After all of that I come up with usually two or three selections a day. I only bet if everything looks like it is in my favour and where my ratings show a good buffer over the expected prices.
What is your winning strike-rate and profitability?
These are slightly different for the flat and the jumps. On the flat, I usually make around 12% profit on turnover from a 30% strike rate. I do not back a lot of outsiders and tend to bet in the range of Evs through to 5/1. That just seems to be at the level where I have most success so I have struck to it. On the jumps racing, the strike rate is a little higher as there are loads of horses around the 6/4 mark that I back. Many of those have a huge class advantage on their opponents. So on the jumps I tend to see a slightly higher strike rate, maybe closer to 35%. I tend to make between 10% and 20% profit on turnover, with an average around 15%.
Over a year, my last three years have been 12.8%, 15.6% and 14.1%. The weather plays a part in my results, so that can have some short term variance effect. Otherwise things are very steady.
How does the staking plan work?
I bet to return a set amount, based upon perceived margin and confidence. Usually that is 5% of my betting bank. I think that is enough, but know people who bet much more and much less. Again, I have tended to stick with what works. I do not change my stakes throughout the year. I just review my bank each year and then the 5% becomes a bigger real number hopefully.
Who are the best bookies to bet with?
You have to bet with Betfair, but the bookies are great with the Best Odds Guaranteed offers that are prevalent right now. They will restrict you quickly if you are seen to be an arber or keep betting at top price, but you should only bet small amounts with each firm. There are enough ways to get the bets on that it is not too hard to stay in the game. It can be a nuisance, but half of our bets are probably on Betfair so it is not too bad. All of the mainstream bookies are fine, but sometimes I also use the smaller private firms. Never bet the maximum at one bookie and never just bet with a bookie when they are top price. If I take top price with a bookie on a horse for the day, then I try to back my other selections there also if they are equal top or just below. The Best Odds Guaranteed betting means that I will take unders sometimes if I am sure that the SP will be bigger than the top price. You just need to be a little smart about it. For the Champion members, I would expect to have a lot of bets at Betfair SP. Probably around half by that method and then a good spread around a dozen other bookies.
Why are you prepared to share your bets?
The UK racing is very liquid and everyone should be able to get set. I am happy to put my ratings to good use somewhere else, as it is a lot of work to compile then just for myself and a couple of punters and owners.
Release time (AEDT) and format.
I only bet from Monday to Friday. On Saturday’s the racing is very competitive and I am too busy with admin and organising runners and jockeys to get involved punting. I actually found that everything suffered when I tried to do a lot of betting on Saturday’s. It was also my least profitable day of the week except Monday. I simply decided to give it a break on the weekend. There is enough for me to watch, listen and learn from at that time. Sunday is my only day off unless I am managing a runner, so I generally do not bet then either.
I will send members one email each day which will cover the courses to bet at, select a few races and discuss the main chances. I will then advise where and how to back the selections. The email should come at around the same time each day for most of the year.
Managing Run of Outs and Strike Rate
I intentionally look at races where my ratings discount most of the runners immediately, so strike rate is high and run of outs is manageable. At my average prices you can expect a run of outs approaching ten or so over the course of a year. That can happen any time, and I do not worry about it at all. It seems to me that I would not worry about a long run of wins or get too excited about it. The winners come and go and the strike rate evens out over the year. If I am backing a lot of horses from a particular stable and I see a discrepancy in the results, then I might revisit the information or knowledge that I have on that yard. Otherwise, I expect consistent profits rather than dramatic swings.
Monday to Friday bets, with probably an average of two per day. Perhaps a little more, maybe 12 per week. There is no real difference between the flat season and the jumps season. Sometimes a few less bets when the codes begin to change over.
Give the office a call on 1300 500 057 if you have any questions at all.