Greg Lethe: Framing a market

By professional greyhound punter Greg Lethe There’s no right or wrong way to frame a market for an event. I’ve seen many different ways used successfully. The element they all have in common is a consistent structure and methods. Nobody gets every market right every time but if they follow a consistent structure the swings and roundabouts of a long term cycle will even themselves out. Here is my method: Step 1 – Download ratings data for every runner engaged from my database. The ratings data delivers some key numbers. Last start rating at the track, Last 5 ratings at the track, career best rating at the track and sectional times. Step 2 – Download running style data from my database. Running style data includes box manners and early running direction, chasing vigor, fitness and ideal race distance. Step 3 – Download all trial information from my database. Trial information is sourced from a network of trail watchers. Step 4 – Research all runners on debut at the track. This research involves analyzing video replays of their lead up races. It also involves contacting local experts who cover the track where the dog is trained. Step 5 – Prepare a directional speed map and assign every runner a numeric value based solely on their advantage or disadvantage in the run to the first turn. Their ability or class is not considered in this value. This numeric value can be a + or – value ranging from -10 to 10. Step 6 – Assign a numeric value to each runner based on the trainer. This numeric value can be a + or – value ranging from -3 to 3. Step 7 – Calculate by a formula all of the numeric values above and create a “global” numeric value for each runner. Step 8 – Add all of the runners from each race and get a race total. Step 9 – Calculate the percentage each runner is of their race total. Step 10 – Convert that percentage to the appropriate price based on a 100% market. Summary Framing a market starts well before the fields are drawn. It starts with video analysis of the preceding meetings and developing a database. The database builds knowledge of every runner in a standard comparative format. Accurate markets set up a base position to build a staking strategy that suits each punter’s needs. More information on Greg’s approach is available on our Greyhound Guru page. He recently shared his keys to successful punting.