WHAT
The AFL Specials provides value selections on side markets such as player props markets (under/over markets on possessions, fantasy points, goals etc) and other side markets such as total team scores and under/over scores per quarter.
WHO
This package is run by an Australian-based professional sports modeller and his team of data scientists. They’re a full time syndicate completely dedicated to identifying value in global sports betting markets. They have already been very successful in running incredibly high-volume AFL and NBA packages.
WHAT IS THE WINNING STRIKE RATE AND PROFITABILITY
Profit on turnover is expected to be around 7% (although slightly less would still be satisfactory).
WHEN & WHERE
This package will bet on every match during the AFL season. Members updates are sent three times per week:
- Friday around 5:30pm
- Saturday around 12:30pm
- Sunday around 12:30pm
You should also download our app (directly from the App store, or via this link for Android) to get push notifications.
HOW TO USE
Each recommended bet will be available at many different bookies. So each update will have a sheet that lists the bet (or bets) and then the prices at various different bookies.
See a sample sheet here.
The fields on the sheet are as follows:
Home / Away: the match we’re betting into
The market we’re betting into
Our selection
The recommended bet for each bookmaker. For example: 1u, 16.5 @ 1.9, (1.81)
The recommended bet for each bookmaker contains three pieces of information: stake in units, line @ price, (minimum price). The minimum price is if prices have moved – this is the lowest price at which we recommend you still place the bet. If the price goes below this, the bet is no longer considered value.
Note that you only need to bet each selection ONCE. They’re simply displayed across all the bookmakers to give everybody the best chance at getting set. You may wish to bet the same selection more than once at different bookmakers, but the official results will only record each selection once.
HOW MUCH
Each bet will include a recommended stake of either 1, 2 or 3 units.
1 unit = 1% of your betting bank, so simply divide the amount of money you have set aside for punting by 100. Eg. if your bank is $10,000 then 1 unit = $100.
As always, a 100 unit bank absolutely crucial.
Please be aware that whilst these bets will continue to win, it’s important to stay under the bookies radar for as long as possible. Try not to over-stake. And consider using these as one of leg of a double (ideally with other +EV bets in the second leg).
We’ll include a ‘bet down to’ price for each bet, so that you know how far the market can move before you should no longer place the bet.
WHO TO BET WITH
As usual, it’s important to have as many bookie accounts as possible to ensure you capture all the bets at the best prices.
This package will recommend bets at TAB, Sportsbet, UBET, Bet365, CrownBet, Unibet, Ladbrokes, Topbetta, Palmerbet and TopSport.
WHEN TO BET
You’re advised to bet as soon as possible, upon receiving each release.