WHAT
The NBA Specials membership provides value selections on NBA player prop markets: eg. under/over markets on points, rebounds, assists and 3 pointers.
WHO
This package is run by Brett, an Australian-based professional sports modeller with a team of data scientists, programmers and traders. They’re a full time betting syndicate completely dedicated to identifying value in global sports betting markets.
WHAT IS THE WINNING STRIKE-RATE/PROFITIBILITY
Based on thousands of bets in previous seasons we can confidently forecast a strike-rate of around 57-58% for a Profit on Turnover of around 7-8%. Last year’s results were actually far in excess of those numbers. You can expect approximately 50 bets per week up until approximately one week prior to the All Star break. Full results are published regularly on the website.
WHEN & WHERE
The NBA Specials-season runs from NBA tip-off on October 17th right through until the end of the NBA Finals. There will be a break of approximately three weeks in February. That’s because this period of time around the All-Star Break is notoriously unpredictable.
Members updates are sent directly to your email and app at around 8:45. It will include a link to a spreadsheet containing the day’s bets.
HOW MUCH
Each bet advised will include a recommended stake in units: 1 unit, 2 units, or 3 units.
1 unit = 1% of your betting bank, so simply divide the amount of money you have set aside for punting by 100. Eg. if your bank is $10,000 then 1 unit = $100.
Please be aware that whilst these bets will continue to win, it’s important to stay under the bookies radar for as long as possible.
A couple of things will help do this –
(1) Don’t go too hard too early. The volume of bets is high, but don’t try and bet several hundred dollars on all of these on day one. That will be a big red flag to the bookies especially if you haven’t bet much into these markets previously.
(2) Cross-sport multi’s (ie. combining these NBA bets with racing, or NFL, or soccer for example) can work well because then you are seen as a bit of a multi’s mug; and all of your profits aren’t purely on NBA markets
One other thing is line moves. These are typically from $1.87 to $1.80 to $1.75. One move downgrades that bet by one staking level. A 3u play goes down to 2u, and 2u play gets downgraded to 1u. A 1u play that has gone from $1.87 to $1.80 becomes a no bet.
If the actual line has moved 1 point (eg Over 15.5 points is now Over 16.5 points) we no longer back the 1u or 2u plays. The 3u play becomes a 1u bet instead.
HOW TO USE
Each recommended bet will be on a separate line in the spreadsheet. Example:
Sportsbet / 26-Oct-18 / SAS / GSW / Stephen Curry / 26.5 / P / Under / 1.87 / 2.0
This means:
Sportsbet: bookmaker
26-Oct-18: date (updates are daily, so this will always be today)
SAS: San Antonio Spurs – home team in the game we’re betting into
GSW: Golden State Warriors – away team in the game we’re betting into
Stephen Curry: player we’re backing
26.5: the bookie’s line that we’re betting
P: the market we’re betting into. P = points, R = rebounds, A = assists, 3P = three-pointers made, PA = points + assists, PR = points + rebounds, PSA = points + rebounds + assists
Under: whether we’re backing the under or over result
1.87: bookmaker price
2.0: stake in units.
So to explain the above example, we’re betting 2 units on Stephen Curry to score under 26.5 points in the SAS @ GSW game.