WHAT
The NBA Specials membership provides value selections on NBA player prop markets: under/over markets on points, rebounds, assists and 3 pointers.
WHO
This package is run by a Australian-based professional sports modeller and his team of data scientists, programmers and traders. They’re a full time syndicate completely dedicated to identifying value in global sports betting markets.
WHAT IS THE WINNING STRIKE-RATE/PROFITIBILITY
Operating at 24% Profit on Turnover on approximately 50 bets per week up until the All Star break. Full results are published regularly on the website.
WHEN & WHERE
The NBA Specials-season runs from October to Feb 18 and this package will bet on almost every day during this period.
Members updates are sent directly to your email each morning at around 8:50-9:00am and will include a link to a spreadsheet containing the day’s bets.
HOW MUCH
Each bet advised will include a recommended stake in units: 0.5 units, 1 unit, or 1.5 units.
1 unit = 1% of your betting bank, so simply divide the amount of money you have set aside for punting by 100. Eg. if your bank is $10,000 then 1 unit = $100.
Please be aware that whilst these bets will continue to win, it’s important to stay under the bookies radar for as long as possible.
A couple of things will help do this –
(1) Don’t go too hard too early. The volume of bets is incredible, but don’t try and bet several hundred dollars on all of these on day one. That will be a big red flag to the bookies especially if you haven’t bet much into these markets previously.
(2) Cross-sport multi’s can work well because then (a) you are seen as a bit of a multi’s mug; and (b) all of your profits aren’t purely on NBA markets
One other thing is line moves. These are typically from $1.87 to $1.80 to $1.75. One move downgrades that bet by one staking level – bearing in mind all plays are for either 0.5u, 1u or 1.5u. A 1.5u play goes down to 1u and what was a 1u play gets downgraded to 0.5u. A 0.5u play that has gone from $1.87 to $1.80 becomes a no bet.
At $1.75 (moved from $1.87) what was a 1.5u play becomes a 0.5u bet.
If the actual line has moved 1 point (eg Over 15.5 points is now Over 16.5 points) we no longer back the 0.5u or 1u plays. The 1.5u play becomes a 0.5u bet instead.
HOW TO USE
Each recommended bet will be on a separate line in the spreadsheet. Example:
Sportsbet / 26-Oct-17 / SAS / GSW / Stephen Curry / 26.5 / P / Under / 1.87 / 0.5
This means:
Sportsbet: bookmaker
26-Oct-16: date (updates are daily, so this will always be today)
SAS: San Antonio Spurs – home team in the game we’re betting into
GSW: Golden State Warriors – away team in the game we’re betting into
Stephen Curry: player we’re backing
26.5: the bookie’s line that we’re betting
P: the market we’re betting into. P = points, R = rebounds, A = assists, 3P = three-pointers made, PA = points + assists, PR = points + rebounds, PSA = points + rebounds + assists
Under: whether we’re backing the under or over result
1.87: bookmaker price
0.5: stake in units.
So to explain the above example, we’re betting 0.5 units on Stephen Curry to score under 26.5 points in the SAS @ GSW game.