The NRL Specials membership provides value selections on NRL player prop markets and Totals markets – First Half /Second Half, Highest Scoring Half, Team Totals, Try Scorer and Most Tackles are just some examples of markets covered.
This package is run by a Australian-based professional sports modeller, Brett and his team of data scientists, programmers and traders. They’re a full time syndicate completely dedicated to identifying value in global sports betting markets.
WHAT IS THE WINNING STRIKE-RATE/PROFITABILITY
NRL Specials is a new package for Champion Bets where Brett’s team is forecasting 7%-8% POT. Full results published regularly on the website.
WHEN & WHERE
The NRL Specials runs right through the entire NRL season through the Finals culminating in the Grand Final on September 30. There will be bets expected on almost every game-day during this period.
Members updates are sent out each game day with the time determined by the first game of the day:
11:30am for daytime games in New Zealand
1:30pm for daytime games in Australia
5:30pm for evening games in Australia
There will be 2 updates on those days where we have day and night games.
Each bet advised will include a recommended stake in units: 1 unit, 2 units or 3 units.
1 unit = 1% of your betting bank, so simply divide the amount of money you have set aside for punting by 100. Eg. if your bank is $10,000 then 1 unit = $100.
Please be aware that whilst these bets will continue to win, it’s important to stay under the bookies radar for as long as possible.
A couple of things will help do this –
(1) Don’t go too hard too early by betting several hundred dollars on all of these on day one. That will be a big red flag to the bookies especially if you haven’t bet much into these markets previously.
(2) Cross-sport multi’s can work well because then (a) you are seen as a bit of a multi’s mug; and (b) all of your profits aren’t purely on NRL markets
One other thing is line moves. These are typically from $1.87 to $1.80 to $1.75. One move downgrades that bet by one staking level – bearing in mind all plays are for either 1u, 2u or 3u. A 3u play goes down to 2u and what was a 2u play gets downgraded to 1u. A 1u play that has gone from $1.87 to $1.80 becomes a no bet.
At $1.75 (moved from $1.87) what was a 3u play becomes a 1u bet.
If the actual line has moved 1 point (eg Over 15.5 points is now Over 16.5 points) we no longer back the 1u or 2u plays. The 3u play becomes a 1u bet instead.
HOW TO USE
Each recommended bet will be on a separate line in the spreadsheet. Example:
26-Oct-16: date (updates are daily, so this will always be today)
SAS: San Antonio Spurs – home team in the game we’re betting into
GSW: Golden State Warriors – away team in the game we’re betting into
Stephen Curry: player we’re backing
26.5: the bookie’s line that we’re betting
P: the market we’re betting into. P = points, R = rebounds, A = assists, 3P = three-pointers made, PA = points + assists, PR = points + rebounds, PSA = points + rebounds + assists
Under: whether we’re backing the under or over result
1.87: bookmaker price
0.5: stake in units.
So to explain the above example, we’re betting 0.5 units on Stephen Curry to score under 26.5 points in the SAS @ GSW game.