It’s ANZAC Day Eve and there’s a huge game of footy to feast on tonight. Before you put your footy tips in and bets on for tonight’s blockbuster, read Daniel and Stephen’s preview of the contest.
AFL Round 5
Melbourne vs Richmond
Tuesday, 24th April 2018
The Demons have been a disappointment so far this season, after many (including ourselves) thought they were primed for a big year. It isn’t too late in the season for them to put themselves in a good position to see them through to their first finals campaign in years, but with each passing week that brings a disappointing result, the more they need to make a big statement to show they are still competitors this year.
They face a tough task this evening in taking on the reigning premiers in the Richmond Tigers, however they are not without a chance. Both teams have looked underdone at times this year, but last week saw two contrasting results, with Richmond running riot over a flat Brisbane side, and Melbourne themselves getting smoked by a fired-up Hawthorn outfit. As such, Richmond will no doubt be coming into this match brimming with confidence, and the task will be set for Melbourne to bounce back from their worst performance of the year to date.
Both teams will be coming in to this contest slightly under strength, with Jordan Lewis being withdrawn from the Melbourne side this week due to injury, and Josh Caddy and Nick Vlastuin being unable to suit up due to injury as well for Richmond. Melbourne of course are still missing other keys players in Tom McDonald and Jack Viney.
After the embarrassing loss against Hawthorn last week, Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin also decided to axe a few under performing players, and as such the whole playing group has been put on notice to step up this week or risk their spot in the side.
The table below breaks down the quality of players for both teams. From this Melbourne comes out with a slight advantage by our Player Ratings systems, having 2 extra players in both the Elite and A grade categories than Richmond. However, looking at the player ratings in aggregate for the two teams, they come out to be quite even. As such we project these sides to be very evenly matched in what should be an exciting match up.
Both of these teams boast strength all around the park, with book-ends of the like of Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt for Richmond, coming up against young guns in Jake Lever and Jesse Hogan, who are supported by in-form ruckman Max Gawn.
While Gawn will most likely have his way in the ruck contest, Richmond have quite possibly the best player in the game at the moment ready to reap havoc at the contest in Dustin Martin. The graph below compares player quality across the different areas of the ground, and as the numbers show, there is practically nothing in it between these two sides at every position breakdown.
We expect this to be a highly entertaining Anzac Eve match to enjoy watching. Recent form suggests that it is Richmond’s game to lose, but our ratings suggest that this game will be closer than what the market suggests.
AFL Tips members will be having a bet on tonight’s game, but there is still time to jump aboard in time for both tonight’s clash and tomorrow’s blockbuster between the Pies and the Bombers.
Join now and start winning on the footy in 2018.