Caulfield Guineas

The bet of the Spring goes around this Saturday. I named Royal Symphony the bet of the Spring in the Caulfield Guineas a month ago, and I am happy to back that up and stick fast on Saturday. Soon after that call was made, he came out an won at Flemington from what looked like an impossible position.. I mentioned that the horse does things others can’t and his first up run demonstrated that.

The run of Royal Symphony second up when defeated in The Caulfield Guineas Prelude initially looked disappointing, but I think that was exacerbated by the fact that an unbeaten horse who had an expectation to just keep winning didn’t win. The bubble had burst emotionally for many involved. When the dust settled, the reality was, the run was a good run, and it was the horses first look at Caulfield. He was ultimately in an impossible position in the run, and couldn’t beat the clock in the run home against some handy horses, but did put good sectional splits on the board.

The risk on Saturday is where he will settle in the run and whether his racing pattern again brings him unstuck. I have confidence that won’t happen for two reasons. The first is the fact this race is over 1600m. Second up, I think it was a wise move to stay at the 1400m with a view to the main event, but it did him no favours in terms of keeping his unbeaten record intact. I expect the 1600m to be a distance he relishes. The other favourable factor this time around is that he has now had race experience at Caulfield. It’s a track that we all know has brought many good horses unstuck.

Looking at the opposition, I am going to highlight two main chances of upsetting him. One is the obvious, Kementari. This horse has a good record and hit the line equally well in the Guineas Prelude, he has to be considered worthy opposition and the main danger.

The other horse I am keeping an eye on is Levendi. This guy is looking for further, but if there is enough pace on in this race he’ll hit the line hard and could be the blow out runner. The VRC Derby looks his grand final, and its a race he shouldn't be underestimated for.

Rounding out the other chance for the multiples is Perast. You can’t ignore winning form, and although Royal Symphony was taking a lot of the headlines after his defeat, this horse was his conquerer and will run another good race on pace again.

The horse I do not like is Catchy. I think the Thousand Guineas was at her mercy, but connections have chosen to throw her in against the boys and I think it is a decision they will pay the price for. I base this on the sectional times she has been running not comparing favourably. My only reservation here is to ignore the warning David Hayes has given all along which is that she is a very very good filly.. David Hayes is no mug, but I’ll throw my reputation on the line against his in this case!

I’ve stuck this far with Royal Symphony and believe the above view is backed up with solid facts, so I won’t be deserting the ship now! We’re set for a stellar renewal of a classic race.