Group One racing is back this weekend, and professional punter of 20 years weighs in on each runner in the C.F. Orr Stakes.
Group 1 WFA Ladbrokes CF Orr Stakes (1400m)
Caulfield, Saturday 4:45pm
Speed Map: Most of the pace is out wide and will come from Lord Of The Sky and Tshahitsi. Black Heart Bart, Mighty Boss and Thronum will sit handy. Harntell, Mr Sneaky and Tosen Stardom will be around midfield.
Runner by Runner
Looking at the form of Hartnell (James Cummings / Craig Williams), his best runs are actually fresh. He won first-up last prep, and his two fresh runs previous to that had him running second to Winx. He didn’t have much luck after his first run last prep and they mucked around with him a bit. The wide barrier is a slight concern but he’ll be thereabouts.
Black Heart Bart (Darren Weir / Brad Rawiller) resumes off about two months’ break. He won this race last year and has a terrific record at the Caulfield 1400m, winning four of six. He’s getting a bit older but is good off a freshen-up and I reckon on form he looks the goods here. He’ll settle handy and is a very, very consistent horse.
The Weir stable are saying Tosen Stardom (Darren Weir / Damian Lane) is more advanced than Black Heart Bart. He resumes off three months and was fairly plain first up in the Spring, though that was off a longer break. He had no luck second-up and then improved and won two Group 1s. The wide barrier here worries me a bit and being first-up he should go back from there. A bit of a risk at the price for me.
Brave Smash (Darren Weir / John Allen) was ordinary last start and I think he was probably ridden too close. His best runs in Australia, including in the Everest, have seen him ridden cold, so I think they’ll let him ease in and find his feet. He’s a better horse than what he showed at the Valley but I’d probably like to see him again before backing him.
Lord Of The Sky (Robbie Laing / Damien Oliver) won first-up down the straight then was average last time. He’s had two runs over 1400m and none in the last 18 months. Don’t think he’ll be capable at the 1400m in this class.
Tshahitsi (Chris Crook & Imogen Miller / Brendon McCoull) was good second-up and has a terrific record at this distance. He maps to roll forward and I reckon he’s well over the odds here.
Mr Sneaky (Anthony Freedman / Kerrin McEvoy) wasn’t really suited first-up. He’s got a good record at this distance but again, the wide barrier here is a negative for me. Probably unders.
Thronum (Hayes & Dabernig / Mark Zahra) looked like he was set for his first-up run over 1200m and won very well. He’s got a chance here but will have to improve to win.
Dollar For Dollar (Tony McEvoy / Jamie Kah) was okay behind Tshahitsi second-up and has a platform to do better here. Gets blinkers on for the first time and I think they might improve him. A chance at good odds.
All Of Single Gaze’s (Nick Olive / Ms Kathy O’Hara) best form is over further and from the inside barrier I think she’ll get back. Wait for later in the prep.
Shillelagh (Chris Waller / Michael Dee) produced a peak performance winning the Cantala in he Spring. She usually needs a run or two though.
Abbey Marie (Michael Kent / Luke Nolen) is a staying mare who worked home okay first-up in the Spring. Probably not suited first-up here over 1400m.
Jester Halo (Darren Kolpin / Christine Puls) is outclassed here.
The surprise winner of the Caulfield Guineas, Mighty Boss (Mick Price / Michael Walker) has trialled okay but I think he’ll probably need to have improved a bit to win this.
I’ve got Black Heart Bart on top. For a bit of value, the Tassie horse Tshahitsi looks nice odds in the market at the moment.
Trevor Lawson is our expert analyst in Melbourne, with his Melbourne Ratings membership focusing on Victorian Metro meetings.
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