Group 1 Australian Guineas Preview

Trevor Lawson weighs in with his runner-by-runner preview of the big race

racing tips winners

It’s the Group 1 Australian Guineas from Flemington, and our expert racing analyst in Melbourne Trevor Lawson runs through each runner in the field.

Flemington Race 7

Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m)

Set Weights, three-year-olds
Prize Money: $1,000,000

#1 Mighty Boss (Price / Walker)
Barrier 2
Was unlucky first-up behind Hartnell and then poor last start. On the quick back up, I’m happy to oppose.

#2 Cliff’s Edge (Weir / Allen)
Barrier 16

Has returned in good form, winning first-up then then being caught three-wide the trip second-up. Third-up looks ideal and can run to its best.

#3 Embellish (Autridge & Richards / Bosson)
Barrier 9
Looked every chance at its first Australian run from an inside barrier. Would need to improve significantly to threaten here.

#4 Levendi (Gelagotis / Melham)
Barrier 10
Won the Carbine on Derby Day over this trip. Was a bit plain first-up but better suited her at the 1600m. Blinkers go on. Can improve here, may need one more run to reach peak.
#5 Muraaqeb (Hayes & Dabernig / Lane)
Barrier 15
Ran home nicely last start over 1400m. Steps to the 1600m for the first time and has a wide barrier, which are both concerns.
#6 Villermont (Purcell / Nolen)
Barrier 7
Went back from a wide barrier when resuming at 1400m and was never likely, and recovered poorly post-race. Will improve here out to 1600m, but may need one more run to reach its best.
#7 Main Stage (Busuttin & Young / Bayliss)
Barrier 5
Hit the line nicely first-up over 1400m. Looks a staying type so 1600m should suit, and can sit closer from the better draw. Should improve.
#8 Addictive Nature (Baker / Williams)
Barrier 8
Sydney galloper down to Melbourne for the first time. Started favourite first-up, running third behind Trapeze Artist and Showtime, which ran third here last week. Didn’t quite finish off over 1400m last start. Is still competitive here and doesn’t have to improve much to be a chance.
#9 Holy Snow (Price / Dee)
Barrier 14
Terrific win first-up when specced at big odds. Hit line hard over the shorter trip. Steps to 1600m which shouldn’t bother, but has a wide draw again which is a concern.
#10 Salsamor (Busuttin & Young / Childs)
Barrier 12
Hit the line well first-up in weaker class. Can improve here second-up but this is a big jump in class. Prefer others.
#11 Grunt (Price / Oliver)
Barrier 17
Terrific win getting over the top of Cliff’s Edge late. Off a 53-day break here, better suited and walked in only time at 1600m. Can step off last run.
#12 Black Sail (Purcell / Thompson)
Barrier 3
Had excuses first up when worked on the pace in quickly run race at Caulfield has raced OK at this trip in past, is honest but prob lacks class for a g1 race
#13 Peaceful State (Weir / Rawiller)
Barrier 11
Terrific win when resuming at Sandown, and then possibly ridden a bit too close second-up when on the quick back-up. Can bounce back here if ridden cold.
#14 Mr So And So (Freedman / Mertens)
Barrier 6
On the quick back-up from last week, coming back from 1800m. Hasn’t had much luck in the past two runs, but lacks class.
#15 Aloisia (Purcell / Zahra)
Barrier 13
Big drifter in the market first-up when well backed. Worked home nicely late. Improved dramatically second-up in the Spring. Has bigger targets in mind and may take one more run for peak fitness.
#16 Bring Me Roses (McEvoy / Currie)
Barrier 1
Hit the line well resuming over 1400m and ran well over this trip in Spring. Can sit a bit closer from the inside barrier, is a good chance.

Trev's Tip

Found this a pretty hard race to pick, but Cliff’s Edge and Grunt are the two to beat for mine.

Value: Bring Me Roses looks the best value in early markets.