With the running of the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes this weekend, expert analyst Trevor Lawson has weighed in with his racing tips for the big day.
Flemington Race 8
Group 1 WFA Black Caviar Lightning (1000m)
The speed will be okay and come from Super Too, Ball Of Muscle and Redzel, who’ll all go forward. Formality, Hey Doc and Redkirk Warrior will trail the speed, and then Supido, Missrock and Terravista will get back.
#1 Redzel (Peter & Paul Snowden / Kerrin McEvoy)
Barrier 9, 58.5kg
Winner of his past six starts and is unbeaten from two down the straight, and he races on the pace. So he deserves to be favourite but I think he’s a bit short at the moment. I think it probably has to get out a bit in price.
#2 Terravista (Joseph Pride / Mark Zahra)
Barrier 4, 58.5kg
A terrific horse fresh and also down the straight, and won this race last year. He’ll need a good ride but if he gets the breaks, we know he’ll be flying late.
#3 Hey Doc (Tony McEvoy / Luke Currie)
Barrier 3, 58.5kg
Won down the straight over 1200m when resuming in August, and then won again fresh in Spring over the 1200m. He’s never raced over 1000m however, which is the concern.
#4 Redkirk Warrior (Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig / Regan Bayliss)
Barrier 7, 58.5kg
Another impressive performer when fresh and has won his past two first-up here at 1200m. Again, the only slight concern is he’s never raced over the 1000m (in Australia).
#5 Rock Magic (Chris Gangemi / Michael Dee)
Barrier 1, 58.5kg
Honest eight-year-old who is always around the mark, but I’d think it lacks the killer punch to win over 1000m at G1 WFA level.
#6 Ball Of Muscle (Joseph Pride / Craig Williams)
Barrier 2, 58.5kg
Resuming off a 1000m win here, he’s honest but probably another who lacks the class to win at this level.
#7 Supido (Michael Kent / Beau Mertens)
Barrier 10, 58.5kg
Won first-up and then only had one more run last prep. He’s run well down the straight before and tends to have his races spaced… but again, I’m just not sure if he has the class.
#8 Missrock (Robbie Laing / Damien Oliver)
Barrier 6, 56.5kg
Good when fresh and has won well down the straight. I give her some sort of chance at good odds.
#9 Super Too (Marc Conners / Stephen Baster)
Barrier 5, 56.5kg
She’s a very quick mare but this is a very big jump in class.
#10 Formality (Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig / Dwayne Dunn)
Barrier 8, 53.5kg
Three-year-old filly who’s been thereabouts. Ran third in the Darley in the Spring, but I’m not sure she has the class here.
There’s plenty I’m basically putting a line through here on class, which leaves four horses right in the market for me.
As I said Redzel is the deserved favourite, Terravista will need a perfect run, and Redkirk Warrior and Hey Doc at more 1200m horses. Rule #1 in 1000m races is to back 1000m horses.
Redzel for me, but he’s just under the odds for mine.
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