It was another excellent month in August 2017 with $2876 profit over 343 bets at 17.1% P.O.T. Our highlights were $881.25 profit on 4 August and $1174.90 profit over the 12-13 August weekend.
Saturday has always been our busiest day but it’s been busier than usual the past few months. That will continue in September and October. It makes sense given the bookies are trying to attract new customers and the biggest punting day of the week is Saturday. It creates a big day but, as we’ve seen, that can also mean big profits.
A and B selections performed in line with expectation in August 2017. It was again encouraging to see more turnover on A selections compared to B selections, showing there is still plenty of good value around.
We had a few new bet types in August 2017, which is always good. Bookies do not understand the value they offer on new promotions very well (which allows us to take advantage) and it’s good fun cheering on some different bets.
Our bread and butter performed as expected with Fixed Odds making 14.8% P.O.T. over 128 bets and Head to Head making 13.4% over 55 bets. Price had another excellent month with 29.2% over 37 bets. That makes 36.5% P.O.T. on them over the past 5 months (199 bets) now.
Win-Draw-Win picked up in August with the start of the English Premier League season and we’ve started nicely making 21.5% P.O.T. over 45 bets. Correct Score made a nice start with 1 winner and 3 money backs from our 5 bets making 131.7% P.O.T.
Trifectas were our worst performer with 4 bonuses and 3 losers from our 7 bets. Historically, they’ve performed poorly albeit over too small a sample size. We’ve seen the back of them for the time being.
The bet type I really want to talk about this month are the multis. Multis had another cracking month. They made 76.9% P.O.T. over 26 bets for $1000 profit (on the dot). That makes them 55.3% P.O.T. over 56 bets for $1547.50 profit the past 2 months. The multis have been one of our best performers since we first began.
The Jan-Jun 2017 6-month results for the multis were 10.4% L.O.T. over 236 bets for a $1210.50 loss. That’s 6 months of losers!
The multis have been a perfect example where time can fool us into thinking a certain approach is not worthwhile, when the important factor is the number of bets. 100 bets are 100 bets over any time period. However, we’re more likely to ditch a strategy with 100 bets that lose over the course of year compared to a strategy with 100 bets that lose over the course of a weekend.
I’ve known that bias for a while but an important lesson I’ve learnt this year is just how many bets you need (i.e. sample size) to be certain about a set of bets. It’s almost an unreasonable number (in the thousands in some cases). In the multi example, 236 bets were not enough and I’ve even heard of a 1000-bet losing series from a 10% P.O.T. line bettor! While a previous record is critical when assessing a tipster, an under-rated factor is the quality behind the process that goes into the tips.
There was one bookie we did particularly well on this month but apart from them, profits elsewhere were reasonably well spread given the month we had. As usual, make sure to back your normal bets with the touchy bookies and bookies you want to keep your promo access to the most.
WA had a good month with similar results to the unrestricted states. SA smashed it out of their park with their results this month. NSW copped the raw end of the deal a tad this month essentially due to restrictions on one bookie. $913.60 profit for the monthly fee is still an excellent result.
Spring Racing and Footy Finals have now arrived, so we can expect plenty of value in the weeks ahead. It’s the best time of the year for promotions, so it’s a good time to be on board with the High Lows. September has started well, so we’ll try to continue that trend with more profits in the month ahead.
Good luck in September 2017,