The spectacle that is the Superbowl has arrived for another year, with millions tuning in around the world.
While the match is set to be a tight and entertaining contest in itself, having a bet on the game only increases the interest.
So which markets should you be targeting?
Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 @ $1.95 for 4 units (Sportsbet/Crownbet)
I had this line at -1 for the Eagles and thus represents terrific value.
I think the value of Wentz compared to Foles is very overblown because of the quality of the offensive play design and the quality of the defense (especially the 7 high-end pass rushers the Eagles possess). The past has shown us you don’t need an elite level quarterback to win a superbowl when the rest of the team is in the upper echelon in basically all categories. You ideally just need the quarterback you have to be lights out in the postseason as well and that’s been Foles thus far. Foles also has the benefit of going up against the worst pass defense in the league as well.
I actually follow and love the Patriots (which makes this difficult) unlike most people who see them as the evil empire. I think they’re lucky to even be here given they shouldn’t have had home field in the playoffs due to the ‘win’ over the Steelers, and were beyond lucky to beat the almighty Jaguars which gives us a good reference point to where they are.
The Patriots defense has been atrocious all year and they won’t win the time of possession battle in this game (25 to 35 minutes is the prediction for that). I expect Philly to be able to pressure Brady effectively and keep the Pats off the field, the Eagles offense to be able to do whatever they want including getting a big lead early, extending that lead and then holding on to it (unlike Atlanta). I think the Patriots will be happy if they are only down 7 at Halftime and then they can make adjustments which is what they do best and potentially win the game from there. Just don’t think it will happen though. Easy win for the Eagles.
Eagles First Half Points Over 10.5 for 0.5 Units (Pointsbet)
If you are unfamiliar with spread betting you are essentially betting 0.5 units here per point that the total goes over or under.
In this bet we are hoping the total 1st half points for the Eagles is 20 in which case we will win 9.5 x 0.5 units for a +4.75 units return.
Eagles Total Points Over 22.5 $2.03 for 1 Unit (Crownbet)
Again expect the Eagles to score at will.
Nick Foles Passing Yards Over 242.50 $1.87 for 2 units (Sportsbet/Palmerbet) or 250 or more $2.00 (Centrebet)
Foles goes for roughly 300 yards. Pats given up 237.5 YPG in postseason at home to the powerhouse offenses of the Titans and Jaguars. In regular season gave up 270 YPG. Think it should be around 280.5 so nice value.
Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards Under 72.5 receiving yards $1.88 for 1 unit (Crownbet)
Don’t think Cooks gets enough targets or the requisite big gain to cover this big total.
Nick Foles Passer Rating Over 83 for 0.5 units (Pointsbet)
Foles has been lights out so far in the postseason with 3 TD 0 INT 299 YPG from 31.5 pass attempts per game with a PASSER RATING OF 122.1! The Patriots allowed Mariota and Bortels (2 powerhouse QBs!) to go for 98 Passer Rating in their 2 playoff home games. Great value here. Think the worst he goes is 85 which would still cover.
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