outcome bias

I’m going through a bad run at the moment.

But you reach a point in your punting career where it makes no difference whether you’re having a bad run or not. You could say that’s a mark of your progress as a punter. As long as you know your tips are profitable, that is the key.

Like all punters, you get into punting for the thrill of a win and there’s no doubt that’s still one of the best things about it. What changes though is how you react to bad runs, or your indifference to them. I’ll still curse occasionally when I get pipped in a photo or there’s some bad luck, but I’ve moved on a minute later. Sometimes I don’t react at all. After all, what’s the point?

That’s because you reach a point as a punter where you realise it’s got nothing to do with individual winners and losers, or good or bad luck, or runs over short periods of time. Making money in this game is about the long-term. You could lose twenty bets in a row and they still might have all been great bets, or you could win twenty in a row at roulette and just have got lucky.

The upswings and downswings are an inevitable part of every set of tips but it’s funny how we react sometimes during a bad run, even though we know at the start it will happen at some point. Eventually the ebbs and flows even out over time and the true profitability of your selections comes through.

The thing that annoys me the most is when I make mistakes, which we all do, we’re human. Even then, my mindset quickly turns to what I learned from it and how I can fix my process to avoid it next time and improve. You learn more from your mistakes and you almost always have to learn it the hard way in this game (ie, with big losses).  Most if not every pro would have gone through the same thing to reach the point they are now. You cannot change the past, so there’s no point worrying about it. But you can learn from the past to change the future.

The most important aspect as a subscriber to a service is the decision about whether those tips are profitable or not. Once that decision is made, you allocate the correct unit level to suit your situation and punt away.

The psychology of the punt is such a critical aspect and not often discussed. It’s good to understand your own psychology to know what’s going on when you punt. That helps you focus on what you need to do, understand your reactions, make more money and ultimately enjoy what you do more. Life would be boring if it was perfect and reaching that point of perfect psychology and approach is always something to strive towards.

So I don’t want to take away from the thrill of a win because that’s one of the best things about the punt. But next time there’s a bad run or bad luck, see it for what it is and move on knowing it really makes no difference.

I hope that gives you some insight into the mind of a professional punter.

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