There’s a fine line between winning and losing in the horse racing tips game, and unfortunately some of our Champion Bets members bore witness to that at Sandown yesterday.
Let’s paint the picture.
Melbourne expert analyst Trevor Lawson sent out his early bets to members at 9am, betting into Race 7 with two selections. Trev really liked the look of Street Sheik, rating it at $3 and backing it at early odds of $3.60 with multiple bookies. He had something small on The Regiment at double figure odds as well.
Melbourne Ratings members are treated to a few extras on race day, with Trev’s full set of rated prices and speed maps available for members to use as references while betting.
The map for race 7 showed Street Sheik sitting just outside the leader, Reflectivity – a horse which Trev thought would lead from the inside gate but be unable to hold on in the straight under normal circumstances.
As the race drew near, anticipation grew. Trev was on, the members were on, and it was time to watch the magic. The clock ticked over to 4:30pm AEST, the gates crashed open and the horses were off.
Just as Trev’s map predicted, Reflectivity took up the early lead with Craig Williams putting Street Sheik in a nice position right outside the leader in second. Things had started beautifully.
The horses rolled along over the 1600m with Street Sheik looking strong throughout the run. As the final bend approached, the race was all before the Sheik. It loomed up right alongside Reflectivity by the 400m and looked as though it would motor away down the straight.
Nothing from behind seemed to be making any ground, and the race had become a sprint between two.
Another 100m went by and nothing changed. The runners were almost neck and neck, but our Sheik seemed unable to reel the leader in. Surely in the last 200m the leader gets tired.
The line was now fast approaching and while the Sheik looked a winner, Reflectivity seemed to be holding it off. The leader from start to finish was getting the upper hand and was getting home the better.
Much to the dismay of many Champion Bets members and Trev himself, no less, Street Sheik fell short by a half-head. It did exactly what was expected all race and was almost the perfect ride, but down the straight it simply couldn’t make up any ground.
There was plenty of reaction on social media and the live page post-race. Trev was unable to grasp what he had just watched, with the race unfolding exactly as planned except for the all-important result. What more could he have wanted, other than a win? How was it possible that Street Sheik didn’t cross the line first?
Talk of a track bias caught the ire of other punters, with claims that if you weren’t on the fence it would be near impossible to make up ground.
Talking through my kick and not knocking track staff, it is what it is, but boy I prefer Hillside much more than Lakeside at Sandown— Brent Zerafa (@brentzerafa) April 11, 2018
Regardless of the reasons, the fact of the matter is that’s the nature of the game. Racing can excite like nothing else, but frustrate even more. The line between winning and losing in racing is finer than any other line you can imagine.
Trev was able to predict exactly how the race would be run, and determined his selections accordingly.
While the disappointment of a close second stings like nothing else, Trev’s ability to read a race like this means that in the long term, he will undoubtedly win. He has done so for over 20 years, and it’s races like these that are the reason why.
Backing winners is important, but not nearly as important as the process involved to find them. Punting is not about short term gains or losses, and this result will be long forgotten by the first race on Saturday.
Trust the process, and you will be rewarded in the long term.