There’s a good reason why we bang on about value betting: it’s the only way to make money on the punt.
You get value when the odds you take are better than your bet’s true chances of winning.
To achieve this, you need an edge on the market; a set of prices that are more accurate and reflective of future performance than the bookmaker’s.
Last week was a great example of this, with plenty of results across racing and footy that were “upsets” for the bookies and most punters. For our analysts however, the wins were far less surprising.
Trevor’s made a living off his Melbourne ratings for the past fifteen years… so is clearly doing something right. On Saturday at Caulfield, he told members that the strong northerly wind meant that leading would be a disadvantage. For race 4:
Leader looks FONTEIN LAD. WINE BUSH, HIGH MODE and HIGH BOUNTY can settle just off pace. LYCURGUS settles midfield. MISS STRATHALLAN goes back. Majority having had the right prep for a 2400m run, this run will bring them on for next time. Not a lot of value for mine, outside of LYCURGUS ,who looks good odds. Betting Play: backing LYCURGUS.
Recommended bet: Lycurgus (0.75 units) at Top Fluc
Result: Lycurgus salutes, paying $19 top fluc (and $21.20 top tote), making a profit on the race of 13.5 units.
Upset? For most yes… not so much for Trev, who rated the winner a much shorter $6.50.
We’ve spoken with Daniel about the amazing depths their model goes into to identify value on AFL.
The weekend was an exceptional example of this:
Looking at the odds versus the scores, it’s fair to say the bookies didn’t see this coming! Freo at $5.50 were one of the big upsets of the season, but the Suns at $3.05, Pies at $2.67 and Tigers at $2.61 were also great value.
The big footy weekend was definitely not confined to the AFL! Our NRL analyst Steve Green uses a wide range of data including player, team, referee and weather statistics to help maintain his edge on the market… as well as watching every second of every game played to ensure an intimate knowledge of what is going on.
Now although he did go 6-0 in Round 3, ‘perfect weekends’ are actually quite rare and Steve’s main goal is to simply keep finding value bets.
Racing, AFL and NRL are just three of the sports that are well covered by the re-launched Centrebet.
They’re a great option for the serious punter who wants the best odds AND limits.