Easter Weekend Footy Punting Review

A massive weekend of upsets doesn't always have to mean punting losses

AFL tips

It was a weekend full of surprises in the footy with a whopping 10 teams winning after starting outsiders across both the AFL and NRL. Of the remaining seven games, three were won by marginal starting favourites, which made for an exciting and very unpredictable weekend of football.

So that translates to a difficult weekend on the punt, right?

Well, not for everyone.

Enter Steve Green, our NRL expert, and Daniel and Stephen, our AFL analysts, who managed to navigate their way through the minefield and come up trumps in a big way. Add Brett and his team of data analysts to the mix, who have consistently found holes in the player performance and team-based markets, and it makes for a very successful weekend of footy indeed.

Thursday Night Football

Both codes kicked off proceedings with massive Thursday night clashes.

We saw a Grand Final rematch in the AFL as the Crows hosted the Tigers, while the Panthers travelled up north to tackle the Cowboys in a clash between two expectant finals sides.

The Crows exacted some sort of revenge on Richmond after the Tigers took home the 2017 premiership, getting home by 36 points in front of their home fans. While Daniel and Stephen decided to stay out of the betting, Brett and his team took away a profit of over $400 after backing Adelaide to score more than 92.5 points and Matt Crouch to finish with less than 34.5 disposals (he finished well short with 13 after pulling his hamstring midway through the second term).

The Panthers were all over the Cowboys from the first whistle up north en route to a convincing 33-14 victory on the road. While that result was surprising to many, it certainly wasn’t the case for our analysts as they took away a combined profit of $550 on the match.

Brett’s team were spot on again, picking the Panthers +5.5 in the first half and then the second 40 minutes to be the highest scoring half. Steve kept it simple but effective, taking the Panthers at a game line of +10.5.

Good Friday

The team had set themselves up for a big weekend and they kept rolling on Good Friday.

North Melbourne blew St Kilda away to the tune of 52 points after a seven-goals-to-zero final term as the Saints – a team many considered to be top eight chances pre-season – were left to lick their wounds.

Brett’s team rewarded AFL Specials members with more profits, taking both Seb Ross (30.5) and Shaun Higgins (24.5) to stay under their disposal lines. While the game was over for the last 15 minutes, it was still well and truly alive for members and a nervous wait as Higgins finished with 24 possessions for the match.

The NRL’s double-header kicked off with Souths flying home for a thrilling 20-16 victory over Canterbury, and our analysts couldn’t have gotten it more right!

NRL Specials members won $600 as the first half (20 points) finished as the highest scoring half of the match, before Souths recovered from a 14-6 deficit to cover the second half line of -1.5 as well. Steve’s bet of Souths head-to-head also saluted in the dying stages to cap off a another successful 80 minutes.

The Sharks welcomed the Storm in the second half of the action and held the defending premiers try-less in one of the more remarkable defensive performances in recent times. Cameron Smith’s sin-binning capped off a dirty night for the visitors as Cronulla secured a gruelling 14-4 victory, with Steve’s bet of under 37.5 total points for the match never in doubt.

Super Saturday

Three more upsets from six games across both codes followed on Saturday, with the Gold Coast Suns defeating a hapless Carlton 101-67 to get the ball rolling. The Blues were awful in their disposal and looked a shadow of the team that won plenty of hearts in their opening loss to defending premiers Richmond. AFL Specials members got their money back in this one, splitting two bets as Jarryd Lyons (unfortunately) getting off the chain to ruin their perfect weekend to date.

GWS staved off a determined Collingwood at the ‘G, fighting back midway through the final term to run over the top of the injury-riddled Magpies. Daniel and Stephen got their weekend going after taking Collingwood at a game line of +17.5, while just missing a small head-to-head bet on the Pies at $3.00 pre-match odds. Brett’s team was on the money again with two bets, picking Lachie Whitfield (under 27.5) and Callan Ward (over 25.5) to finish on the right side of their disposal lines.

Melbourne secured a thrilling victory over a gritty Brisbane side who had fought back from 41 points to get within a kick in the final term. The result was made more thrilling for AFL Tips members as the Dees covered the -20.5 line with a goal after the siren!

Daniel and Stephen were on top of things again in the late match, with Fremantle dominating Essendon for much of the night before holding on for a 16-point win. The Dockers made members around $350 from 2 bets, not only covering the +11.5 game line but of course winning the match as well at nice odds of $2.65. Brett’s AFL Specials members enjoyed watching this one as well, with Lachie Neale (30.5) and Dyson Heppell (28.5) both staying under their disposal lines for another $550 collect.

In the NRL, the Warriors stunned the Roosters with a thumping 30-6 win on the road, completely dominating the match after falling behind in the fourth minute. The Roosters didn’t look likely from that point on and put in one of their poorer showings in recent seasons, but it was just as Steve had suspected and his bet of New Zealand +9.5 comfortably saluted.

Manly heaped more misery on Canberra in the late game, condemming the Raiders to a 0-4 start with a 32-16 thrashing at home. The Raiders were top four fancies in the pre-season but after a string of last-minute losses in the first three rounds, they looked a shadow of a team looking to play finals footy in 2018.

Easter Sunday

The upsets kept coming on Sunday, with West Coast blowing away the Bulldogs to the tune of 51 points at Etihad. That came as a surprise to Daniel and Stephen, who backed the Doggies to bounce back at home after a poor first-up showing, but instead the 2016 premiers looked like a team completely devoid of hunger and confidence.

The Power stunned the Swans in the second half of their SCG clash to run out deserved 94-71 victors and help the boys bounce back to profit for the day. A reasonable bet on the Power at the game line of +17.5 got things back to even, while a smaller head-to-head bet on Port meant another winning day for members.

Brett’s AFL Specials broke even for the day, with quarter time line bets of West Coast +2.5 and Sydney -4.5 getting up, but player performance bets on Lachie Hunter (under 25.5) and Josh Kennedy (under 28.5) both falling short of the mark. Hunter’s 26th and final disposal during time-on of the fourth quarter hurt.

The money kept rolling in for Steve’s NRL Tips, with the Dragons returning to the top of the table with a resounding 30-12 win over the Knights to easily cover the game line of -8.5. St George Illawarra is looking very strong after a month of the season, which is great news for members who took on Steve’s four futures bets back in February as well.

Another upset finished the day off, with the Titans trouncing Brisbane 26-14 on the road in a result very few saw coming. That is outside of Steve, of course, who was more than happy to take the Gold Coast at a game line of +12.5.

Easter Monday

The team capped off a brilliant long weekend on Monday with another winning day across the board.

Daniel and Stephen went big on the Hawks at a game line of +6.5 and certainly weren’t disappointed despite having to hold on nervously in the dying stages as Hawthorn and Geelong played out yet another thriller. The $450 profit for the boys on this match took their weekend’s profits to a massive $1277… not bad in a weekend full of surprise results.

Brett and his team cashed in for AFL Specials members as well, correctly picking Jaeger O’Meara and James Sicily to both stay under their disposal lines of 25.5 and 24.5, respectively.

The Wests Tigers continued their surpising start to the season with a 30-20 win over winless Parramatta, who have been equally surprising early in 2018 for all the wrong reasons. Steve’s early bet on Wests +1.5, before the Tigers eventually came into -1.5 favourites, was cruising at the 65th minute-mark with the home side leading 30-6 before the Eels set hearts fluttering with a blitz that ran out of steam in the closing minutes.

NRL Tips members finished the weekend well on top as well, profiting handsomely at just shy of $1000.

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