Winning On NBL: Introducing Mat & Jake

Mat and Jake have developed proprietary models across a number of different sports. NBL has been particularly successful on both sides and totals. Mat explains more in the following Q&A:

What’s Your Background?

For many years we have operated private sports betting models for a small group of punters.

In 2017 and 2018 we have also publicly released the bets from our NBL model for free via Twitter with great success.

We continuously research, analyse and test new theories that the market under-rates to improve the model. I’m not only a data nerd, I generally love Basketball and rarely miss an NBL game.

How Are The NBL Selections Generated?

They’re generated from the development of a statistical data model that has been fine-tuned over many years experience.

What Is Your Winning Strike-Rate & Profitability?

We sit right around the 58-59% strike rate across services.

~ 59% Totals
~ 58% Lines

Including a nice 23-8 record on the max plays for Line bets (74.19%).

This results in the following records:

  • Line +26.21 @ 17.98%
  • Totals +11.57 @ 13.23%

How Does The Staking Plan Work?

It is based on the overlays picked from the model versus the bookmakers prices. Obviously the bigger overlays mean bigger outlays, with all bets are for either 1.25 or 2.50 units which is based on a 100 unit betting bank.

Who Are The Best Bookies To Bet With?

We have found TopSport, Beteasy, UBET/TAB to be the best to get set with our NBL bets.

Sportsbet and Ladbrokes lines are often out, but will limit quicker too. We all have different bookies that limit us for different reasons, so it’s important to adjust for what works for you.

Betfair is worth keeping an eye on late, in that last hour. Although there’s low liquidity during the day, you can often get decent sized bets matched above advised prices in the last few minutes before tip-off.

Why Are You Prepared To Share Your Bets?

It’s a great opportunity to share the tips outside of my private followers to a larger audience. We’re often betting late so we don’t expect it to affect our ability to get on.

Release Time (AEDT) & Format.

We often bet in the last 30 minutes before tip-off, normally 15-30 minutes out. This allows us to have as much information as possible on player matchups and it’s quite common in the NBL for there to be important late outs, so we can use that to our advantage.

On occasion we will bet earlier in the day, normally around 11am. This will often be for totals or lines where we are more confident in the final lineups.

Managing Run Of Outs & Strike Rate

Our NBL tips run at a 58-59% strike rate which we would expect to continue for the rest of this season at least.

With the amount of activity throughout a season the draw downs are very low.

Current Max drawdown on the NBL Services recorded are just 6.50 for Lines and 8.23 for Totals. Any service should prepare for much larger draw downs than the above, so we are very happy with the current records.

Expected Activity

NBL weeks usually start with a Thursday night game and often end on a Monday, so often there are just two nights off.

On average we expect around 5-6 bets per week and approximately 200 units turnover per season.

There’s never been a better time to follow the NBL and our new NBL Tips membership also means there’s never been a better time to bet on the NBL.

4-5 plays per week on team, line and total markets, with historical results over past two seasons showing a $3,700 profit at 16% profit on turnover.

The first bet release will be ahead of this Friday night’s blockbuster between the Perth Wildcats and Sydney Kings.

There’s less than 40 spots available so don’t delay!

Champion Bets

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