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Free racing tips July 16: The Professor (Queensland Winners) at Dalby

Queensland Winners members receive all of The Professor’s bets at 9am, just in time for minimum bet limits, enabling them to secure the early prices that the bookmakers have got wrong.

On Saturdays, members also receive a full ratings set from The Professor for the main metro meeting, allowing them to follow markets throughout the meeting and bet further should they wish to, where value presents itself.

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Free Racing Tips July 16: Queensland Winners

Dalby Race 5 #4 Special Case: currently $10 with TopSport

Another fairly unappealing meeting here with a Heavy 9 track and some very ordinary races. Not one where I want to dive into something at short odds. But Special Case in Race 5 looks like he could be some value. Is an interesting runner – a 7YO having only his 6th race start and still in his first preparation. Broke his maiden at this track / distance three starts back as an odds-on favourite (in a pretty ordinary race, it has to be said).

His form since then has been better than it reads on paper. He an 4th beaten 2.4L over 800m at Warwick in a race that was better than the BM60 label. Did appear to race wide from an outside draw on that occasion, though it wasn’t mentioned in the stewards report. The form out of the race has been good. Last start was beaten 6L into 8th at the Gold Coast over 900m but that race was a huge rating race won by Tullio, who has gone on to win his next two starts including last Saturday in a metro race at the Sunshine Coast. All told, 4 runners out of that race were next start winners. That includes the only horse that Special Case beat home, General Witt, who won his next two starts.

All that indicates to me that beaten 6L in that race is absolutely good enough to win this race. Add to that Special Case jumped from barrier 9 and was again trapped wide throughout. He draws a better gate here and you can expect some improvement. That run was on a Heavy track so it may look as though he has failed at his only start on Heavy, when in fact he has run a career best. Does have 34 days between runs which is not ideal, and not exactly well weighted, but even given those factors think he is over the odds here at double figures and worth a bet.

Elsewhere today…

Check out the latest update to the AFL and NRL line ladders – they tell you which footy teams you should be backing.

Get another couple of free tips on this week’s PGA Tour tournament: The Golf Insider likes a couple, including Tiger! Get them here.

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