The Golf Insider is coming off a big winner as Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($81) took out the Andalucia Masters in Spain over the weekend. He penned some thoughts on golf betting and why it’s important to play the ‘long game’.
Punters should realise betting on golf isn’t like betting on any other sport.
It involves a bigger number of players, a wider range of prices, and a greater amount of variables.
In other words, it’s much harder to find the winner of a golf tournament than it is to pick the winner of pretty much any other sporting event.
So last week we had a 80/1 winner in Spain (which we were on!) and a golfer in the States who was a late-entry and wasn’t even in the early lists. He went off a 100/1 shot with a few firms I saw, but he was much bigger in some early books – he sure was in mine! And then in the each-way places there were guys at 200/1 (again who we backed), a couple at 150/1, 350/1, 500/1 up to De La Riva in Andalucia who was 750’s and the rest.
You just don’t see this in other sports.
What punters must remember is that if predicting the result was easy, the layers would simply squeeze the market around the top names and under-bet all the most likely winners. And backers would never win.
Golf tournaments like this, where upwards of 100 players in a field of 150-plus could potentially win, doesn’t allow this practice to happen. Otherwise the books wouldn’t add up. So in all these events there have to be players going off at value odds.
But to find them, you need to look further down the lists. And when you go deeper into the markets, the odds get bigger and the strike rate naturally drops.
This is the basis of my own personal betting. Generally ignoring the top of the market, where the margins are smallest, and hunting out guys further down the lists who offer real value.
This is how I have consistently beaten the book. Yes, I take a hit on strike rate, but I accept this, and budget for it, knowing guys like Bezuidenhout (80/1 generally pre-tournament, and 101 on Betfair) will land.
Now because this is how I bet myself, this is the method which underpins the Golf Insider.
And on looking back through all the Tournament Winner bets advised on the service, the figures back this up strategy. The average price of all bets being just shy of 80/1, but the profit to a level stake showing a 24% return.
So if you get the reasoning behind my approach, and can see why I follow it, then you’ll understand a little better how the service works. And more importantly why it works.
What you need to do is stake sensibly, make sure you stay in the game, and keep patient.
This is how I win at golf betting, and it’s how you’ll win as well.