Flemington Race 8, 4.45pm
Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m)
Lay of the land
Slight headwind but shouldn’t make much difference. The rail is out 9m, which generally means they come down the strip about five off the rail, so expect them to come down the middle of the track. I tend not to like inside barriers as much down the straight.
The speed story
Straight races here they tend to sit up and then sprint home. They often race in a bunch, so a horse like The Quarterback will settle closer than in a circle race.
Heatherly is likely to lead. Flamberge, Star Turn, Flying Artie and Faatinah will all sit handy. Illustrious Lad and Terravista should be midfield. Supido and Spieth likely to get back. The Quarterback will probably be last.
In the mix
Lots of colts here who should be wound up for a big Group 1.
Illustrious Lad (Gelagotis / Darmanin) just went to a new level its past two runs before a spell. It’s won down the straight but over 1200m. Has run well fresh in the past and went out in good form. Looks a shade of overs here.
Terravista (Pride / Brown) is a very consistent horse. Goes well fresh and down the straight. Former ‘worlds best sprinter’ and ran well first-up, but he’s getting on a bit.
Spieth (Heys / Bowman) should have won the G1 Darley Classic beating Malaguerra in the Spring. First up here, has trialled well and gets Hugh Bowman.
Flying Artie (Price / Oliver) won the big 3yo race on Derby Day down the straight beating Astern and Star Turn.
Star Turn (Hawkes / Dunn) got beaten by Flying Artie in the Coolmore but I reckon he was at the end of his prep. Not much between them at their best.
Heatherly (Ellerton & Zahra / Lane) has one huge ratings figure at Caulfield last year but she’s never got anywhere near it again. Likely to lead but get run down.
Supido (Kent / Nolen) good horse but looks to be short odds here. Ran 3rd in G2 Goodwood but prior to that was basically in benchmark races. This race looks a different class.
Put a line through…
I’ve got the rest of the field at 30s, 50s and up.
It’s really hard to know how much the 3yo’s have improved and grown. And because the market has been up for so long there aren’t a lot of massive holes in it. So it’s a good race to watch rather than bet, but Illustrious Lad is the one who does look to be some value.
I’ve got Spieth at about the same price as the market. I have Flying Artie, Star Turn and Terravista rated just a shade longer than than what is currently available.
Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over 15 years. His Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his early bets, assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.