- Group racing is back at Caulfield with the Bletchingly Stakes
- Gun three-year-old Sesar takes on the older horses
Our Melbourne pro punter Trevor Lawson has put together his full Bletchingly Stakes preview… make sure you read this before you bet!
It’s been rated a Soft 6 at the moment but I think it’s probably a bit firmer than that. Having said that, it looks there could be a fair bit of rain Friday night which will probably push it back to a Soft 6 anyway, so that’s what I’ve worked on.
The map is pretty straightforward. Jungle Edge will lead with True Excelsior, then Spirit Of Aquada and possibly Cliff’s Edge and Bandipur. The rest will sit midfield or back.
Let’s break down the nine runners…
True Excelsior (8) is slightly ahead of them for mine. She ran some okay figures in the past but is first-up off a long-ish spell and all her best runs are on dry tracks. Only a very rough chance.
Jungle Edge (2) will lead, he’s fairly a consistent horse on this ground and he’ll run to his usual rating.
Bandipur (4) had no luck last start and pulled up lame… I’m not rating him to his best and have put him in put in a length under his peak. He’s fairly typical of this whole race in that there’s a lot of uncertainty… it’s just very hard to know where a lot of the contenders are at.
Sesar (6) is the promising three-year-old which ran well at his first start for the new trainers. Both of his best career runs have been on wet tracks, which ticks another box.
He’s a promising horse on the way up but he does get back, which is a query. He has a slight habit of missing the kick so could be in an awkward spot.
It’s basically just very difficult to get him short enough to make him a betting proposition. There’s no value there for mine.
Sesar opens $1.85 favourite for Saturday’s Bletchingly Stakes at @MelbRacingClub Caulfield with Jungle Edge the $4.60 second elect.
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The best credentialed challenger is Scales Of Justice (1). He’s first-up so hard to get a line on fitness, plus he hasn’t won since June 2019.
He hasn’t run for 250 days, when he had two starts back-to-back off another 300 day break. So he’s had two runs in 600 days.
He did run second down the straight behind Redkirk Warrior in the 2017 Bobbie Lewis, beating Voodoo Lad, Land Of Plenty, Lucky Hussler and So Si Bon, so he’s beaten good horses before. After that he started favourite in the Sir Rupert Clarke but got a long way back and didn’t challenge. They’re his best ratings but they’re almost two years ago. It’s hard to see what he’ll rate. His first-up record is largely irrelevant because it was so long ago.
He had a jump-out at Ballarat on Tuesday, where he went okay without really wowing.
I think he’ll need the run, and I’ve rated him three lengths off his best figures from two years ago.
Cliffs Edge is also first up, off a 266-day spell. Again, it’s hard to know what figures to put if you don’t know where the fitness is. He’s run over this trip, but as a three-year-old, and has had two jump-outs and a trial which have been solid. I’ve rated him a length and a half off his best and he should improve with the run.
Spirit Of Aquada (5), Miss Vixen (7) and All About Nicci (9) are completely outclassed here.
As you can see, it’s a tough race to be having a bet in. The favourite ticks the boxes but is just too short for mine, and it’s very hard to rate the others when they’ve been away so long and you don’t know where their fitness is up. You just have to assume they’ll be better for this run. The key to betting is value, and it’s hard to see a lot here… if you want to win long-term, sometimes you have to be disciplined enough to let a race go!
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