If you’re into racing, then it’s odds-on you’re paying attention to somebody’s tips.
Whether you follow somebody’s else selections religiously, or just picking out the ones you like, or just using them to check against your own form work. Whether you just get them out of the paper of a Saturday morning, or pay a professional good money for his advice… everybody cops a tip in one way or another.
But how do you know if somebody’s worth following? Before putting your own money behind somebody else’s judgement, ask these questions…
Do They Make Money?
Seems obvious. But note the question is ‘Do they make money?’, as opposed to ‘Do they pick winners?’… anybody can pick winners by following the market and picking favourites. The key is whether they find value with their selections and thus make money over a period of time.
Where Are The Results?
Have they got a bank of recorded results that demonstrate their performance? If somebody takes their punting seriously enough that they are recommending selections to others, then they take it seriously enough to record all their bets. And that should be available.
Where Are The Prices?
Does the tipster not only offer a selection, but tell you the price at which the bet should be taken? Profitable betting is all about value – without it, a tip doesn’t mean a whole lot.
What Is The Stake?
Beware of a tipsters’ results if they don’t offer a stake before the fact – it’s easy to increase the stakes on winning bets afterwards.
Can You Replicate The Results?
Look at the results. If they’re using fixed-odds, are they prices that were easy to to get, or are they prices that were snapped up before you’re able to bet? Or are they at an easily-obtainable tote option?
A set of results doesn’t mean much for you personally if you can’t match them – make sure you can.
As A Punter, Can You Make Sense Of The Betting Behaviour?
Look at patterns in how the tipster bets. If things don’t make sense, you’ll soon pick them up. For example, you might notice they recommend a bet in every race – this is a sure sign of a poor punter. No matter what their approach, every successful punter bypasses races they don’t like.
Does the staking make sense, or does it show signs of loss chasing? Is it at level staking, with which it’s basically mathematically impossible to turn a profit?
If you can’t answer each of these questions to your satisfaction, then think about whether you want to be putting your hard-earned cash behind somebody’s tips. There’s probably better things to spend your money on!
It’s safe to say NSW Winners pro-punter Mark Rhoden is in the category of good judge, with a brilliant record over a long period of time.
Over $13,500 profit since September 2017 is no fluke, and it’s only just the beginning.