all aged stakes

The All Aged Stakes is a 1400m Group 1 weight-for-age race held at Randwick Racecourse. Total prizemoney is $600,000.

The All Aged Stakes is an extremely old event, having been held during the Sydney autumn carnival since 1865. In recent times, it has served as the feature race on the final Saturday of the carnival – the week following The Championships.

All Aged Stakes: Pro punter preview

Track It’s a Heavy 8 at the moment, with just a couple of millimeters of rain forecast between Thursday and Saturday. It shouldn’t get any heavier and may even dry out a bit, but it’ll obviously still be rain affected. I’m working on it being in the 7 – 8 range. It was hard to make too much ground last week, so pay attention to any track patterns throughout the day.

Speed Fast tempo here. In the Congo, Ellsberg and Overpass should settle in the top three, while Forbidden Love may get stuck wide coming from the outside barrier.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

Forbidden Love [$4.80is now sixth-up and I’m going to take a set against it. I think Bowman on is a positive, but think the horse has already peaked this prep.

Mounga‘s [$5.50] chances will depend greatly on the track pattern and if horses can run on. He was great first-up in the Futurity, and if track is fair he’s one of the main chances.

In The Congo [$5.50] may have had this penciled in as his target this prep. Is this why there was a slower than usual tempo last start? His last win was over 1400m off a fast tempo, and last week’s race wasn’t run with any great pace so he should be good to back up here. They’ve gone with a great front running jockey in Tim Clark.

Tofane [$9.50] wants it as dry as possible. This is her pet distance. If the track isn’t as wet, I would wind her price in.

Cascadian [$12] hasn’t produced a figure this prep that I think would be good enough to win this. So he’ll need to improve to take this out… but is a chance.

Nimalee [$13] regressed in ratings last time she had a seven day back-up. Did she have her birthday last week in the Queen of the Turf? If she maintains last week’s form she’s one of the main chances. With the wide gate she may settle back further than last week.

Ellsberg [$14] is yet to produce in a Group 1 race. I think current odds are too short.

Sierra Sue [$16] produced a figure in the Futurity that would be good enough to win this, but she’s another one where the drier the track, the better. If it was a totally dry track I would have her a bit shorter than I do now.

Overpass [$16] will get a nice run, albeit off a fast pace. This is his first time over 1400m at Group 1 level, which may be a bit tough off a fast tempo.

Shelby Sixtysix [$18] has been remarkable but I think the fairy tale may be over. I can’t see him winning this against horses that are early in their preps.

Mr Mozart [$19] hasn’t produced at Group 1 level yet, so would have to improve somewhat.

Laws Of Indices [$26] was disappointing in the Doncaster and is now back in distance. Will she get stuck on the fence?

Hungry Heart [$31] is first-up in a fast-paced Group 1 on a likely wet track. That’s a very tough ask.

I don’t give much of a chance to  Zoutori [$41], Shout The Bar [$21], Kolding [$61] or Olmedo[$101] and would be very suprised if they won. But the odds for the winners in last week’s Group 1 races, you have to remember that anything is possible!

Betting strategy

As I said, I’ll take a stand against Forbidden Love. She’s back to a better distance, but the barrier and run in transit are definite negatives for her.

Around her I have a few possible betting plays. If there is a pattern where it’s hard to run on, In the Congo would be a big chance and I’d be keen to be on. If it happens to get to drier than a Soft 7, Tofane would be a play at the current price.

Finally, if you want some value at double figure odds, I’d be going with Sierra Sue.

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