Melbourne pro-punter Trevor Lawson brings you his Andrew Ramsden Stakes preview as the field looks to book their ticket to the Melbourne Cup.
Andrew Ramsden Stakes (2800m)
Expect this to be genuinely run with both of Gai’s horses to roll forward. Steel Prince to sit handy. I’ve mapped Surprise Baby to go back. They may go forward, as there’s lot of horses going back and at 2,800 metres, only about 600 metres to the first corner. But I think ideally they’ll want to be back.
Put a line through…
For me, the following are simply outclassed here: Barry The Baptist (5), Serenade The Stars (6), Felaar (7), Golden Authority (8), San Remo (9), Bemboka Queen (17) and Mental Telepathy (19).
#1 Eastender (Barry Campbell / Craig Newitt)
Whacked away fairly under 60kgs last time out. Won the Launceston and Hobart Cups earlier in the year. Not sure if can peak for a third time, rough chance.
#2 Steel Prince (Anthony Freedman / Damien Oliver)
In terrific form, winning all four runs this prep. Carried the minimum with the claim last start. Gets Oliver on, the greatest distance rider of our time. Will sit handy.
#3 Alfarris (Hayes & Dabernig / John Allen)
Came through the same race as Eastender. Not sure that form is up to some others and he fell in there. Would need to improve significantly.
#4 Azuro (Maher & Eustace / Jye McNeil)
Ran fairly two starts back in restricted, then got too far back in Warrnambool Cup. Would need to improve significantly and isn’t suited at WFA.
#10 Instigator (Aaron Purcell / Declan Bates)
Ran home nicely over a shorter trip. Carried the minimum in the Warrnambool Cup. Now has to run at WFA, which will make it hard. Rough chance.
#11 Runaway (Waterhouse & Bott / Stephen Baster)
Won the Geelong Cup third-up in Spring. Third-up here. Not sure if he can repeat that figure, which was on a biased track. Has rough claims.
#12 Surprise Baby (Paul Preusker / Dean Holland)
Could be a star. Terrific effort winning the Adeliade Cup. Arguably should’ve won last start with 60kg, giving weight to all his rivals here. The one to beat.
#14 Rockarral (Tony McEvoy / Jamie Mott)
Progressing nicely this prep, out to longest distance yet. Looks a natural stayer. Rough chance.
#15 Fairlight (Kris Lees / James Winks)
Sydney galloper who doesn’t look to have the form here.
#16 Sheezdashing (Ellerton & Zahra / Craig Williams)
Poor strike rate, but does run well without winning. Worked home nicely in the Warrnambool Cup. Rough chance.
#18 Transact (Waterhouse & Bott / Luke Currie)
Three-year-old who won the St Leger on ANZAC Day over this track and distance. Rated down ignorantly last start. Not sure can bounce all the way back to the St Leger performance, but has rough claims.
I’ve got a hot favourite, with one more in the race, then the rest in a bunch. Surprise Baby is on top from Steel Prince, and then I have a very big gap to the rest. And Surprise Baby meets Steel Prince six kilograms better at the weights.
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