The Australian racing spotlight heads west tomorrow with the running of the $1m Railway Stakes and $500,000 Winterbottom Stakes. Since many punters only bet at Ascot for a brief period each year let’s take a closer look at the track, with the caveat that this is just a very brief overview and is only intended as a starting point for more in-depth form study prior to betting tomorrow.
Looking at the results since 2007, the first thing to note is that Ascot is yet another track where inside barriers are overbets: Barriers POT% 1 to 4 -12 5 to 8 -4 9+ -5 All barriers -8 Ascot favourites don’t perform as well as those at the other metropolitan Perth track (4% loss on turnover at Ascot versus 1% win for Belmont). That trend continues when we look at the first three in the market as a group (12% loss on turnover at Ascot versus just 6% for Belmont). Now we’ll look at the record of trainers with at least 200 runners under 10/1 during the last six years: Trainer POT% D Morton -2 N Parnham -3 J Taylor -5 A Durrant -7 L Luciani -7 F Kersley -12 T Andrews -13 D Harrison -15 L Smith -19 All trainers -8 (POT% = Profit on Turnover) Pat Carbery and Alan Kennedy are the two jockeys who are both in the black: Jockey POT% P Carbery 3 Alan Kennedy 1 P Knuckey -1 W Pike -4 P Harvey -5 S McGruddy -5 S O’Donnell -6 S Parnham -7 J Whiting -9 J Brown -12 B Parnham -14 T Turner -14 D Staeck -15 J Noske -25 All jockeys -8 Last start winners perform above expectations, but minor placegetters struggle to take that next step: LS Fin Pos POT 1st -4 2nd -16 3rd -9 Unpl -6 Don’t be put off by horses coming off provincial form: Last start POT Metro -8 Provincial -5 Horses having their first start at the track have a terrible record compared to those that have had at least one run at Ascot: Track starts POT 0 -19 1+ -6 In a trend that holds true at most metro tracks, middle distance and staying races are not quite as reliable as sprints: Distance POT 1000-1600 -7 1800+ -10 A quick summary of Ascot:
- Inside barriers and last start placegetters are over-bet
- P Carbery and A Kennedy were two jockeys who produced positive returns, but no trainers achieved this mark
- Experience at the track is definitely an advantage but don’t be put off by horses coming off a run at the provincials
- The 1000m to 1600m distance range provides the most reliable results
Good punting David Duffield