Ascot Analysed

The Australian racing spotlight heads west tomorrow with the running of the $1m Railway Stakes and $500,000 Winterbottom Stakes. Since many punters only bet at Ascot for a brief period each year let’s take a closer look at the track, with the caveat that this is just a very brief overview and is only intended as a starting point for more in-depth form study prior to betting tomorrow.
Looking at the results since 2007, the first thing to note is that Ascot is yet another track where inside barriers are overbets: Barriers        POT% 1 to 4           -12 5 to 8           -4 9+                -5 All barriers    -8 Ascot favourites don’t perform as well as those at the other metropolitan Perth track (4% loss on turnover at Ascot versus 1% win for Belmont). That trend continues when we look at the first three in the market as a group (12% loss on turnover at Ascot versus just 6% for Belmont). Now we’ll look at the record of trainers with at least 200 runners under 10/1 during the last six years: Trainer           POT% D Morton       -2 N Parnham    -3 J Taylor         -5 A Durrant      -7 L Luciani       -7 F Kersley      -12 T Andrews    -13 D Harrison    -15 L Smith        -19 All trainers    -8 (POT% = Profit on Turnover) Pat Carbery and Alan Kennedy are the two jockeys who are both in the black: Jockey            POT% P Carbery          3 Alan Kennedy    1 P Knuckey        -1 W Pike             -4 P Harvey           -5 S McGruddy      -5 S O’Donnell       -6 S Parnham        -7 J Whiting          -9 J Brown            -12 B Parnham        -14 T Turner            -14 D Staeck          -15 J Noske            -25 All jockeys        -8 Last start winners perform above expectations, but minor placegetters struggle to take that next step: LS Fin Pos    POT 1st                -4 2nd               -16 3rd                -9 Unpl              -6 Don’t be put off by horses coming off provincial form: Last start     POT Metro           -8 Provincial     -5 Horses having their first start at the track have a terrible record compared to those that have had at least one run at Ascot: Track starts    POT 0                -19 1+              -6 In a trend that holds true at most metro tracks, middle distance and staying races are not quite as reliable as sprints: Distance       POT 1000-1600    -7 1800+        -10 A quick summary of Ascot:

  • Inside barriers and last start placegetters are over-bet
  • P Carbery and A Kennedy were two jockeys who produced positive returns, but no trainers achieved this mark
  • Experience at the track is definitely an advantage but don’t be put off by horses coming off a run at the provincials
  • The 1000m to 1600m distance range provides the most reliable results

Good punting David Duffield