- Based on SP prices, we can calculate how many winners the market expected from all jockeys and trainers
- Comparisons to actual performance shows us where the market is getting it wrong.
Today we bring you a new set of stats to help you get a better view of racing form, and help you understand the jockeys and trainers that the betting market underrates.
Andrew, the man behind our DataBase Bets and DataBase Ratings, has access to huge amounts of racing data. We’ve asked him to put together some statistics on which jockeys and trainers are travelling the best.
His model is obviously far more in-depth that what you see here. It includes data covering forty individual horse, trainer, jockey, track and race variables is crunched by 25 separate data models, all of which interpret them from different angles. The results from these models are then blended to create a single final probability, which produces a price for each horse. These are Andrew’s DataBase Ratings, and the highest value selections for these each day make up the DataBase Bets package.
What the stats show you
The below statistics outline the jockeys and trainers that have outperformed the market most since the beginning of this racing season (August 1st).
Included: All racing in Victoria and New South Wales since August 1st are included in the numbers.
For jockeys and trainers, only those who have had 50+ runners are included. For jockey and trainer combos, only those with 20+ runners are included.
Expected wins: Based on the SP (restated to a 100% market) of each runner, this is the number of expected wins for each participant. It’s based on price, so riding or training lots of shorter priced horses would mean a higher expected win count.
Jockeys and trainers are ranked on the difference between expected and actual wins: ie, by how much they’ve outperformed SP expectations.
PoT: This is profit-on-turnover based on backing this jockey or trainer in all races – assuming proportional staking at official SP.
Victorian Jockeys
| Jockey | Expected Wins | Actual Wins | Difference | Runners | PoT |
| Logan McNeil | 4.5 | 9 | 4.5 | 73 | 68.3% |
| Michael Dee | 10.5 | 15 | 4.5 | 86 | 18.9% |
| Jamie Kah | 11.3 | 15 | 3.7 | 86 | 11.1% |
| Daniel Stackhouse | 10.6 | 14 | 3.4 | 112 | 9.6% |
| Carleen Hefel | 5.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 50 | 21.4% |
NSW Jockeys
| Jockey | Expected Wins | Actual Wins | Difference | Runners | PoT |
| Tim Clark | 15.1 | 25 | 9.9 | 109 | 38.0% |
| Nash Rawiller | 15.4 | 21 | 5.6 | 91 | 14.2% |
| Aaron Bullock | 31.2 | 36 | 4.8 | 135 | -3.7% |
| Ben Looker | 11.4 | 16 | 4.6 | 100 | 15.9% |
| Tommy Berry | 15.8 | 20 | 4.2 | 108 | 6.5% |
Victorian Trainers
| Trainer | Expected Wins | Actual Wins | Difference | Runners | PoT |
| Danny O’Brien | 8.0 | 12 | 4.0 | 61 | 24.6% |
| Ellerton & Zahra | 11.2 | 14 | 2.8 | 74 | 4.4% |
| Patrick Payne | 11.3 | 12 | 0.7 | 58 | -12.0% |
| Symon Wilde | 6.4 | 7 | 0.6 | 51 | -9.1% |
| Hayes & Dabernig | 37.5 | 38 | 0.5 | 235 | -15.5% |
NSW Trainers
| Trainer | Expected Wins | Actual Wins | Difference | Runners | PoT |
| Gerald Ryan | 6.7 | 15 | 8.3 | 50 | 89.0% |
| Waterhouse & Bott | 15.4 | 20 | 4.6 | 92 | 8.8% |
| Kris Lees | 33.2 | 37 | 3.8 | 170 | -7.4% |
| Robert & Luke Price | 7.3 | 10 | 2.7 | 69 | 13.1% |
| Jason Coyle | 5.3 | 8 | 2.7 | 53 | 24.1% |
Victorian Trainer / Jockey combos
| Jockey | Trainer | Expected Wins | Actual Wins | Difference | Runners | PoT |
| Damian Lane | Ellerton & Zahra | 4.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 23 | 30.6% |
| Damien Oliver | Danny O’Brien | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 21 | 44.6% |
| Dean Yendall | Symon Wilde | 3.2 | 5 | 1.8 | 20 | 28.5% |
| Jamie Kah | Hayes & Dabernig | 4.3 | 6 | 1.7 | 22 | 17.4% |
| Harry Coffey | Maher & Eustace | 3.6 | 5 | 1.4 | 22 | 15.8% |
NSW Trainer / Jockey combos
| Jockey | Trainer | Expected Wins | Actual Wins | Difference | Runners | PoT |
| Tim Clark | Waterhouse & Bott | 4.9 | 9 | 4.1 | 29 | 53.3% |
| Tim Clark | Bjorn Baker | 4.0 | 7 | 3.0 | 22 | 45.2% |
| Aaron Bullock | Kris Lees | 10.0 | 13 | 3.0 | 33 | 7.1% |
| Brenton Avdulla | Team Hawkes | 4.6 | 7 | 2.4 | 22 | 27.6% |
| Tommy Berry | Chris Waller | 3.1 | 5 | 1.9 | 25 | 38.6% |
Click here to download the entire set, and see where all included jockeys and trainers rate.
