Australia’s Most Underrated Jockeys & Trainers

• Based on SP prices, we can calculate how many winners the market expected from all jockeys and trainers
• Comparisons to actual performance shows us where the market is getting it wrong.

Today we bring you a new set of stats to help you get a better view of racing form, and help you understand the jockeys and trainers that the betting market underrates.

Andrew, the man behind our DataBase Bets and DataBase Ratings, has access to huge amounts of racing data. We’ve asked him to put together some statistics on which jockeys and trainers are travelling the best.

His model is obviously far more in-depth that what you see here. It includes data covering forty individual horse, trainer, jockey, track and race variables is crunched by 25 separate data models, all of which interpret them from different angles. The results from these models are then blended to create a single final probability, which produces a price for each horse. These are Andrew’s DataBase Ratings, and the highest value selections for these each day make up the DataBase Bets package.

What the stats show you

The below statistics outline the jockeys and trainers that have outperformed the market most since the beginning of this racing season (August 1^st).

Included: All racing in Victoria and New South Wales since August 1st are included in the numbers.

For jockeys and trainers, only those who have had 50+ runners are included. For jockey and trainer combos, only those with 20+ runners are included.

Expected wins: Based on the SP (restated to a 100% market) of each runner, this is the number of expected wins for each participant. It’s based on price, so riding or training lots of shorter priced horses would mean a higher expected win count.

Jockeys and trainers are ranked on the difference between expected and actual wins: ie, by how much they’ve outperformed SP expectations.

PoT: This is profit-on-turnover based on backing this jockey or trainer in all races – assuming proportional staking at official SP.

 

Victorian Jockeys

Jockey	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	Difference	Runners	PoT
Logan McNeil	4.5	9	4.5	73	68.3%
Michael Dee	10.5	15	4.5	86	18.9%
Jamie Kah	11.3	15	3.7	86	11.1%
Daniel Stackhouse	10.6	14	3.4	112	9.6%
Carleen Hefel	5.5	8	2.5	50	21.4%

NSW Jockeys

Jockey	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	Difference	Runners	PoT
Tim Clark	15.1	25	9.9	109	38.0%
Nash Rawiller	15.4	21	5.6	91	14.2%
Aaron Bullock	31.2	36	4.8	135	-3.7%
Ben Looker	11.4	16	4.6	100	15.9%
Tommy Berry	15.8	20	4.2	108	6.5%

Victorian Trainers

Trainer	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	Difference	Runners	PoT
Danny O’Brien	8.0	12	4.0	61	24.6%
Ellerton &  Zahra	11.2	14	2.8	74	4.4%
Patrick Payne	11.3	12	0.7	58	-12.0%
Symon Wilde	6.4	7	0.6	51	-9.1%
Hayes & Dabernig	37.5	38	0.5	235	-15.5%

NSW Trainers

Trainer	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	Difference	Runners	PoT
Gerald Ryan	6.7	15	8.3	50	89.0%
Waterhouse & Bott	15.4	20	4.6	92	8.8%
Kris Lees	33.2	37	3.8	170	-7.4%
Robert & Luke Price	7.3	10	2.7	69	13.1%
Jason Coyle	5.3	8	2.7	53	24.1%

Victorian Trainer / Jockey combos

Jockey	Trainer	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	Difference	Runners	PoT
Damian Lane	Ellerton & Zahra	4.5	7	2.5	23	30.6%
Damien Oliver	Danny O’Brien	3.5	6	2.5	21	44.6%
Dean Yendall	Symon Wilde	3.2	5	1.8	20	28.5%
Jamie Kah	Hayes & Dabernig	4.3	6	1.7	22	17.4%
Harry Coffey	Maher & Eustace	3.6	5	1.4	22	15.8%

NSW Trainer / Jockey combos

Jockey	Trainer	Expected Wins	Actual Wins	Difference	Runners	PoT
Tim Clark	Waterhouse & Bott	4.9	9	4.1	29	53.3%
Tim Clark	Bjorn Baker	4.0	7	3.0	22	45.2%
Aaron Bullock	Kris Lees	10.0	13	3.0	33	7.1%
Brenton Avdulla	Team Hawkes	4.6	7	2.4	22	27.6%
Tommy Berry	Chris Waller	3.1	5	1.9	25	38.6%

 

Click here to download the entire set, and see where all included jockeys and trainers rate.