Sectional times guru Vince Accardi has analysed the speed form profile of tomorrow’s Australian Guineas and in particular the first 400m. It is crucial to understand what is going to happen early in a race because it directly affects what happens late. Accardi uses advanced digital streaming technology to time races far more accurately than the publicly available sectional times. His data is used by stewards, trainers, owners, studs and he is a consultant to Champion Picks. He expects the race to be run around 15.8 metres per second which means many horses will be required to go faster than their natural running speed. The result of this is they won’t have their normal kick at the end because it will have been blunted by the early and mid-race pressure. “I see Helmet controlling the race up front. He can exert a high level of pressure early and will be the horse to run down without question. Helmet can run 17 metres per second and it’s going to find itself in a comfortable position throughout so it will be able to give its maximum exertion in the last 400m. His first-up run looked disappointing and I initially thought the jockey had made a mistake, but when I reviewed the race in a clinical manner, both the ride and Helmet’s performance were OK. ” “Other horses well suited tomorrow are Decircles, That’s The One and even Sangster. One thing that stood out is the phenomenal mid-section That’s The One can produce. It will be conserving an enormous amount of energy mid-race compared to many of his rivals, which should give it a big kick at the end so long as it wasn’t flattened by its last run. Sangster did nothing first up but people shouldn’t forget just how strong this horse is. Bombaltomba is going to get a long way back and even though it has the best late finishing split it’s not a genuine winning chance simply because of the amount of ground it’s going to have to make up.” “Mosheen may be the second favourite but has below average sectional times for much of her career. In many races she has been able to conserve an enormous amount of energy in the early and middle stages and then finish off. But tomorrow she will be stretched beyond her comfort zone since the race is almost certain to be run faster than the average. I am not expecting an electrifying tempo tomorrow but I do think Mosheen will be stretched beyond her boundaries. The $5.50 is no value at all.” Senior Form Analyst Rick Williams agrees. “I’m not convinced at all about Mosheen. No doubt she is a good filly but I clearly don’t think she’s up to Helmet. I think she’s a fair way off him but the market has them pretty close together”. “I’m also in the Helmet camp. His first-up run was much better than it initially looked, in fact I’d say it’s a total forgive run. He’s good enough to bounce back tomorrow”. A quick summary:
- Helmet is good value at the $3.20 to $3.50 currently available
- That’s The One, Decircles and Sangster are the main dangers
- Mosheen is a lay all day.
A full replay of our Australian Guineas preview is available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVVqx9NTRP8