australian guineas

The Australian Guineas is a Group 1 race over 1600 metres for three-year-olds at Flemington Racecourse. Total prizemoney is $1 million. The race is one of Victoria’s top three-year-old events, and a highlight of the Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival. Despite a relatively short history (being first run in 1986), the Australian Guineas has a star-studded honour roll that includes Zabeel, Mahogany, Apache Cat and Miss Finland.

Australian Guineas 2022: Trevor Lawson’s Preview

There’s a lot of good horses here so it’s always a tough race… this year is no different! Some of the Sydney horses have come down so as well as quality you have colliding formlines to add to the challenge.

Track

The rail goes out to 2 metres so you’d think it’ll play evenly. The only thing you really need to look out for the weather, which I haven’t factored in at this early stage. We can have another look on raceday if there’s something significant.

Speed

It’s a big field and the pace should be pretty good. There’s a few out wide that should go forward, so expect it to be genuinely run.

The Main Chances

Prices courtesy of TopSport, correct at time of publication.

PROFONDO [$4.60] improved his rating every start last prep, culminating in a soft win the the Spring Champion. He’s first-up here at 1600 and can roll forward. Will be the one to beat.

HITOTSU [$5.50] resumes here off the VRC Derby win, which was a peak run. Prior to that he had every possible chance in the Caulfield Guineas, but was well handled by Captivant. He looks ridiculous odds to me – he would have to improve a lot off the last prep to have a chance at winning this. Which he could have done, but we have no evidence of it.

CAPTIVANT [$6] got well back second-up in the CS Hayes last start. He was making good ground and just peaked on his run late. He should be fully fit now.

PINSTRIPED [$8.50] settled midfield in the CS Hayes and really chased down the leader in the straight, running the third-quickest last 200m of the day. He looks a real racehorse and 1600m looks ideal.

FORGOT YOU [$10] got a long way out of his ground first-up in the CS Hayes before rattling home in the quickest last 200m of the day. He’s drawn better here and will be strong late.

LIGHTSABER [$14] ran well first-up in the Australia Stakes, then missed the start hopelessly second-up in the CF Orr, then was scratched at the barrier last start. Three weeks between runs (though he has trialled between) is not the ideal preparation for a Group 1 like this.

COASTWATCH [Scratched] won a slowly-run Autumn Stakes first-up. He’s second-up here, is drawn wide and will push forward. He has a rough chance. He’s a dual acceptor for the Randwick Guineas.

The Others

PASCERO [$17] is racing well. He ran well for second in the CS Hayes last start, but I’m not sure has another level in him, which is required for this.

RANCH HAND [$17] is racing okay. He steps to the mile here which looks a query. He’s one of the outside chances. Also dual accepted for Randwick.

MAURICE’S MEDAD [$34] is drawn wide and it’s hard to see him making the necessary step here.

SPIRIT OF GAYLARD [$34] wasn’t really suited first-up in the Autumn Stakes. He can improve here but looks outclassed in this company.

SHARP RESPONSE [$41] ran well first-up and then hasn’t been suited at the past two starts He looks suited out to 1600m… he has a fluker’s chance.

PRIX DE TURN [$51] ran well second-up at Sandown. He gets Ben Allen here, but the wide barrier means he probably goes back to last. It’s hard to see winning him from there.

BON’S A PEARLA [$61] is drawn wide here and will get back. She lacks the class to do it from there.

ALEGRON [$67] got a long way back first-up in the CS Hayes and made some ground late. He’ll be running on here, but probably wants further and lacks the class.

RHINOCEROS [$91], ZERELLE [$81] and CORONA LAD [$91] are outclassed here.

Verdict

I’ve got Profondo on top at around $5.50, so would just want a touch more value if we can get it. From there I’ve got Captivant and Pinstriped both around $7… so Captivant looks the value bet to me at this stage.

Then I have Forgot You at $14 and the rest of the field $20+.

For those looking for a lay, Hitotsu looks the big hole in the market to me. I couldn’t have him anywhere near that price.

Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.

As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.

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